Tammy Baldwin

Democratic Sens. Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown, the most vulnerable 2024 incumbents in the Senate, are among the senators targeted by the $10 million AFP Action ad blitz.

Hovde is seeking to unseat Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) in a state where manufacturing remains a critical part of the economy.

The former two-term Republican governor will host a fundraising next week, along with former U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin, in support of Demi Kouzounas, the former chair of the Maine Republican Party who is running against Independent U.S. Sen. Angus King.

“They caged me in,” said Dee Henderson, who has lived behind the United Center for the past half-century in one of the last single-home residential buildings on the block.

More than five years after she left public office, former Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan appeared on the national stage Thursday to support Vice President Kamala Harris.

As she wins over Democrats and swing voters, Harris is disrupting old arguments about whether women and people of color can beat Trump.

The Democratic convention wrapped up with Vice President Kamala Harris’ speech accepting the party’s nomination for president.

Former President Barack Obama, Michelle Obama and second gentleman Doug Emhoff will speak on the second day of the Democratic National Convention.

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT: This is the last Morning Digest that will be published at Daily Kos Elections, but we’re not going away! You’ll find Monday’s Digest—and every edition after that—at our new site, The Downballot. You can also subscribe by email just below to make sure you never miss a single update: Embedded ContentYou can read all about this change right here. Our operations are 100% reader-supported, so we hope you’ll subscribe today! Leading Off● UT-Gov: Utah's three-way race for governor took another unexpected turn on Thursday when Democratic state Rep. Brian King debuted a campaign video co-starring far-right state Rep. Phil Lyman, the election conspiracy theorist who is waging a write-in campaign months after losing the GOP primary to Gov. Spencer Cox. But Cox is exactly what is uniting the two legislators in a piece parodying the governor's "Disagree Better" campaign."Now, Phil and I disagree better about most issues," King tells the audience with a wink after the on-screen text identifies him as the "Democratic candidate for Utah governor" and Lyman as "Former (or current depending on who you ask) GOP candidate for Utah governor *litigation pending*)." The two, though, respond in unison that they are united in the belief that "Spencer Cox should not be our next governor." The state representatives go on to politely argue whether voters should write in Lyman's name or cast their ballot for King.Cox generated national attention with a commercial four years ago where he and his Democratic rival, Chris Peterson, agreed they were "both equally dedicated to the American values of democracy, liberty, and justice for all people," and would accept the results of the 2020 presidential race. Cox, who went on to easily win his general election in this dark red state, has continued to attract national attention by calling for more civility in politics, and he used his year as chair of the National Governors Association to launch his "Disagree Better" initiative.The governor's critics, though, have argued that Cox himself is the one who needs to be persuaded by these messages. Cox, who touts himself as "an ally to the LGBTQ community," signed a bill to ban gender-affirming care, which he denounced as "genital-mutilation surgery" at a February “Disagree Better” event.Skeptics have also highlighted how the governor signed off on a GOP-drawn congressional redistricting plan that even Cox acknowledged was a gerrymander. "You signed off on gerrymandered maps without an ounce of remorse," Democratic state Sen. Nate Blouin tweeted last year upon seeing another news story where Cox called for saving American democracy. "This is the problem with 'disagree better.' You shouldn’t get credit for saying nice things if you consistently do the wrong thing."Democrats took notice again last month when, days after saying he'd be casting a write-in vote for president, Cox responded to the attempted assassination attempt against Donald Trump by declaring his support for his party's leader. "I fear that America is on the precipice of unmitigated disaster," Cox wrote to Trump, whom he'd previously told to resign following the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. "We need to turn down the temperature and find ways to come together again before it’s too late." The governor remains in Trump's corner even after it became clear once again that he had zero interest in lowering the temperature.Lyman also is no fan of the governor's project, though for very different reasons. "Our state is slowly slipping away towards becoming something most Utahns don’t recognize," wrote Lyman. "We don’t need to 'disagree better,' we need to Stand for Something!"Lyman himself demonstrated during that campaign that he stood for far-right talking points, which included his responding to the collapse of Maryland’s Francis Scott Key Bridge by retweeted a post claiming that a Black woman on the state’s Port Commission was a "diversity, equity, inclusion and belonging (DEIB) auditor and consultant."The state representative went on to hold Cox to an unimpressive 54-46 margin, and he's spent the ensuing seven weeks refusing to accept that defeat. Lyman launched his write-in campaign on Monday, shortly before the Utah Supreme Court rejected his lawsuit insisting that because he decisively beat Cox at the state party convention before losing the primary, the governor and Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson should be removed from office and replaced by state Senate President Stuart Adams. The justices found that Lyman "offered no viable factual or legal basis for the remedy he requests."And even before he appeared in this video with King, Lyman acknowledged he'd prefer to see the Democrat lead Utah instead of Cox. Hard-line U.S. Sen. Mike Lee, though, quickly made it clear he did not see this as an acceptable outcome when he declared his support for the incumbent.Governors● DE-Gov: Newly released emails show that Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long's government office staff had regularly communicated with key staffers running her campaign for governor, reports Randall Chase at the Associated Press. Under state law, Hall-Long's employees are permitted to conduct campaign activities only outside of their regular work hours and cannot do so using public resources, but the emails indicate that some of them helped facilitate campaign activities and used campaign funds for certain expenditures.Hall-Long's husband, Dana Long, previously served as her campaign treasurer, and the emails include instances where he seemingly coordinated with her office staff during regular work hours to schedule and pay for campaign activities, such as appearances at community events. Some correspondence involved Matthew Dougherty, the lieutenant governor's director of operations who recently stepped aside from that role to run her campaign after her previous campaign manager quit.Campaign finance issues have dogged Hall-Long's campaign since shortly after she joined the race last year. Late last month, state officials released a report concluding that her campaign had violated state law by failing to disclose nearly $300,000 in payments to Long over several years. The couple claimed the payments were reimbursements for personal loans, though the documented sum of those loans was $33,000 less than the total payment amounts, according to the state's investigator.The Sept. 10 Democratic primary is quickly approaching, but few polls have been released publicly, particularly in the weeks since the state published its report on Hall-Long's campaign finances. However, the few available polls in recent months have generally found Hall-Long running competitively with New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer, while National Wildlife Foundation leader Collin O'Mara is much further behind.Senate● NJ-Sen: Multiple media outlets report that Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy will appoint his former chief of staff, George Helmy, to fill the final months of the term of Sen. Bob Menendez, who is set to resign on Aug. 20. Rep. Andy Kim, who won the Democratic primary in June, is favored to defeat Republican businessman Curtis Bashaw in the fall general election for a full six-year term.Menendez, a member of the Democratic caucus who was convicted on corruption charges last month, still has not said if he'll continue his campaign to keep his seat as an independent. The deadline for Mendendez to withdraw is Friday.House● AZ-01, MI-10, WI-03: The DCCC announced Thursday that it was adding three more nominees to its Red to Blue program for top candidates: Amish Shah in Arizona's 1st District, Carl Marlinga in Michigan's 10th, and Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin's 3rd. The trio are respectively challenging Republican incumbents David Schweikert, John James, and Derrick Van Orden.Marlinga, who struggled to attract major financial support during his two bids against James, could have the most to gain from being included in the program. Marlinga held James to an unexpectedly tight 49-48 victory two years ago despite being massively outspent by the Republican, and he didn't raise much money ahead of his win in last week's primary. Marlinga's allies, however, hope this will change and give him the resources to flip a Macomb County seat that Donald Trump carried by a narrow 50-49 margin in 2020.● NH-02: Hillary Clinton on Thursday endorsed former Biden administration official Maggie Goodlander in the Sept. 10 Democratic primary for New Hampshire's 2nd District. Goodlander's husband, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, was a longtime Clinton aide for both of her presidential bids and during her intervening time as secretary of state.● NY-18: Republican nominee Alison Esposito's former career as a New York City police officer involved the city paying $120,000 to settle two misconduct lawsuits against her, reports City & State's Timmy Facciola. Additionally, Politico's Nick Reisman recently reported that Esposito had been reprimanded for failing to properly safeguard her off-duty handgun after a thief reportedly stole it, her police badge, and credit cards from her unlocked car in a separate incident from 2016.One of the misconduct lawsuits was filed in 2005 by three Black women who alleged that Esposito and other officers engaged in racial discrimination and used excessive force when arresting them in 2003 on shoplifting charges, which were later dismissed.The other involved a 2016 incident where a woman sued Esposito and a fellow officer, claiming they "did unlawfully stop, assault, frisk, handcuff, detain, arrest, and imprison" her infant daughter after entering her residence without a warrant or probable cause; that prosecution was dismissed later that year. The plaintiff alleged discrimination regarding her "ethnic background." (The complaint does not specify the plaintiff's ethnicity, but she and her daughter have Spanish surnames.)Esposito denied the allegations in both lawsuits, and she has made crime one of the central focuses of her campaign against Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan in a light-blue district in the lower Hudson Valley located north of New York City.● TX-18: Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner told the Texas Tribune's Renzo Downey on Wednesday that he would not run in the November special election for the remaining two months of the late Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee's term and would instead support her daughter, Erica Lee Carter.The leadership of the Harris County Democratic Party chose Turner on Tuesday to replace Jackson Lee's name on the ballot for a full two-year term in Texas' dark blue 18th District, but Turner, who will turn 70 next month, has made it clear he doesn't intend to be in Congress very long. Turner told the Houston Chronicle last week that he'd serve a maximum of two terms, saying he wants to function as "a bridge from where we are right now."● House: The crypto-aligned super PAC Fairshake recently announced that it would spend over $25 million in ads to help nine House members from each party, and AdImpact reports how much money the group has booked in each of these 18 seats. The totals range from $600,000 to aid Democratic Rep. Nikki Budzinski in Illinois' 13th District to $2 million to back Democratic Rep. Don Davis in North Carolina's 1st.Poll PileAZ-Sen: Peak Insights (R) for the NRSC: Kari Lake (R): 46, Ruben Gallego (D): 46 (44-42 Trump with third-party candidates)MI-Sen: Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) for the AARP: Elissa Slotkin (D): 47, Mike Rogers (R): 44 (48-48 presidential tie in two-way, 45-43 Trump with third-party candidates)PA-Sen: Franklin & Marshall College: Bob Casey (D-inc): 48, Dave McCormick (R): 36 (46-43 Harris with third-party candidates) (March: 46-39 Casey)The Cook Political Report also released several polls on Thursday, conducted by a Democratic firm, Benenson Strategy Group, and a Republican pollster, GS Strategy Group. Note that these polls were completed on Aug. 2.AZ-Sen: Ruben Gallego (D): 51, Kari Lake (R): 42 (48-46 Harris in two-way, 46-42 Harris with third-party candidates) (May: 46-41 Gallego)MI-Sen: Elissa Slotkin (D): 50, Mike Rogers (R): 42 (49-46 Harris in two-way, 46-44 Harris with third-party candidates)NV-Sen: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 54, Sam Brown (R): 36 (48-45 Trump in two-way, 47-42 Trump with third-party candidates)PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc): 53, Dave McCormick (R): 40 (49-48 Harris in two-way, 48-43 Harris with third-party candidates) (May: 49-41 Casey)WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 50, Eric Hovde (R): 43 (49-46 Harris in two-way, 48-43 Harris with third-party candidates) (May: 49-37 Baldwin)NC-Gov: Josh Stein (D): 48, Mark Robinson (R): 40 (48-47 Harris in two-way, 46-44 Harris with third-party candidates) (May: 37-37 gubernatorial tie)Ad RoundupMO-Sen: Lucas Kunce (D) - anti-Josh Hawley (R-inc)NM-Sen: Nella Domenici (R) and the NRSC - anti-Martin Heinrich (D-inc)NV-Sen: Jacky Rosen (D-inc) - anti-Sam Brown (R)TX-Sen: Ted Cruz (R-inc) (in Spanish)WI-Sen: Eric Hovde (R) - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc)CA-40: Winning for Women - pro-Young Kim (R-inc)CA-45: Winning for Women - pro-Michelle Steel (R-inc)CA-47: Dave Min (D)IA-03: Lanon Baccam (D) - anti-Zach Nunn (R-inc)MI-08: Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) - anti-Paul Junge (R)OH-09: Marcy Kaptur (D-inc) - anti-Derek Merrin (R) (here and here)VA-02: Winning for Women - Jen Kiggans (R-inc) Embedded Content

The wife of Republican U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde is taking center stage in her husband’s campaign in the days after he secured the party nomination

What once looked like a brutal map for Senate Democrats now appears less so, but the party is still facing an uphill climb to stop a Republican takeover.

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. From concerts to campaign cash, 2024 is shaping up as a test of the crypto industry’s political strength. On Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Charles [...]The post At the Races: Crypto campaigning appeared first on Roll Call.

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.Have you seen our big, big news? Daily Kos Elections is becoming The Downballot! We’re a new, independent site, but our mission remains unchanged: shining a spotlight on the thousands of elections below the presidency—races that all too often get overlooked.You can read all about this announcement right here, and we’ve also prepared an FAQ. But if you have any questions, please fire away. Our operations are 100% reader-supported, so we hope you’ll subscribe today! Leading Off● FL State Senate: Next Tuesday's Republican primary for a dark red seat in the Florida state Senate is now one of the most expensive nomination contests for any office in the entire nation, as well as a proxy fight between Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis. Longtime state Democratic strategist Steve Schale tweeted Tuesday that more than $13 million has been spent on TV ads for the 7th District, which is more than all but three U.S. House primaries this year.Three candidates are facing off in this pricey battle to replace their fellow Republican, termed-out state Sen. Travis Hutson, in the 7th District in Florida’s northeast. State Rep. Tom Leek, who chairs the lower chamber's influential Appropriations Committee, sports endorsements from Hutson, DeSantis, U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, and other prominent state and local Republicans. There's long been talk that, if Leek wins a promotion to the upper chamber, he could eventually serve as Senate president. Leek's only primary opponent until two months ago was Gerry James, a former professional wrestler and ordained minister who lost to Hutson 56-44 in 2022 and struggled to match Leek in fundraising. Leek, though, spent weeks on the receiving end of attack ads from a group called The Truth Matters PAC before the third and final candidate, former St. Johns County Sheriff David Shoar, entered the race in June.Shoar, who served as the top lawman in the St. Augustine area from 2005 until his retirement in 2021, quickly began airing ads arguing that the race was a choice between a Trump-aligned Republican and Leek, whom he portrayed as insufficiently conservative. Leek argued in turn that Shoar was tricking voters by implying he had Trump's backing."He is not endorsed by President Trump," the representative told News4JAX in July. "That’s the deception that they’re putting out there to put out their candidate that will do whatever they want."Leek lost that line of argument earlier this month, however, when Trump endorsed Shoar. While Trump's Truth Social post did not mention either of his opponents, the Daytona Beach News-Journal's Mark Harper noted that Leek had endorsed DeSantis' doomed presidential bid the previous year.The two frontrunners and their respective allies have continued to spend millions against one another while largely ignoring James. Leek has in his corner the state branch of Americans for Prosperity, which has long been a key part of the Koch political network, as well as the Florida Chamber of Commerce.Shoar, meanwhile, has benefited from heavy spending from The Truth Matters PAC. Leek highlighted that this outfit is being funded by trial lawyers, a group he's often feuded with while in office. One of Leek's antagonists is John Morgan, the founder of the personal injury firm Morgan & Morgan and the face of this year's amendment campaign to legalize recreational marijuana in Florida. But the man who calls himself "Pot Daddy" is no fan of Leek, and not only because the state representative opposes Amendment 3.Leek, who is the top lawyer at an insurance agency, intensified the already public feud in May when his campaign accused Morgan of financing the attacks against him. Morgan responded by tweeting, "Rep. Tom Leek AKA Tom Leech has begun to attack me as he gears up for a Senate run. I don’t know why because I didn’t give a shit about his race. But now I do and he has awakened a sleeping dog."Morgan has spent the ensuing months making good on that threat, and he currently has a video pinned to his X page of him accusing Leek of passing a 2022 bill that now requires Floridians to "give your lawyer a piece of the money to fix your house, which means you won't have enough money to fix your house."Morgan went on to challenge Leek to a debate concerning homeowners insurance before adding, "You don't have the balls. Your balls—little BB balls—are on the desk of Charlie Lydecker, your employer at the insurance company." Leek's team quickly dismissed any talk that he'd accept 's challenge and highlighted his antagonist's contributions to Democrats. James, for his part, does not have well-heeled backers in his corner, though he's hoping that endorsements from figures like election conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will help him establish himself as an alternative to the "establishment."The Downballot● It's our biggest news in the 21 years since we began covering elections: Daily Kos Elections is striking out on its own to launch a new, independent site with a name that will be very familiar to our listeners. We're calling it The Downballot, but have no fear—we'll still be bringing you this podcast weekly! In fact, our mission isn't changing at all. To learn all about our new venture, including why we're making this change and what to expect, dive right into this week's episode.Most importantly, we're asking folks to support our work shedding light on critical but often overlooked downballot elections by becoming paid subscribers. You can do so right here: https://www.the-downballot.com/subscribeOf course, the world of election news hasn't slowed down one bit! Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap a pair of major losses for the GOP at the ballot box in Wisconsin, where Republicans tried to kneecap the state's Democratic governor via constitutional amendment. They also zoom in on Nebraska's swingy 2nd District, where a Democratic hopeful will soon get a boost from the very top of the ticket. And finally, they provide an update on the abortion rights amendment in Arizona, where the arch-conservative state Supreme Court could strike it from the ballot.Never miss an episode! Subscribe to "The Downballot" wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes every Thursday morning!Governors● NJ-Gov: The influential Laborers’ International Union of North America announced this week that it would support Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill if she runs for governor of New Jersey next year. The New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein writes that LIUNA is one of the state's most prominent unions and has access to "one of the largest PACs in the building trades union sector."● UT-Gov: Sen. Mike Lee on Wednesday made it clear he was supporting Utah Gov. Spencer Cox even though Lee's fellow far-right Republican, state Rep. Phil Lyman, announced earlier in the week that he'd wage a write-in campaign. Lee did not directly mention Lyman, who lost the June GOP primary to Cox, even as he unsubtly tweeted, "The Primary is over ... We must defeat the Democrats by uniting behind our fellow Republicans."House● AZ-03: A Maricopa County judge has set an Aug. 20 hearing to announce the results of the automatic recount for the July 30 Democratic primary in Arizona's safely blue 3rd District. The results certified by the county show former Phoenix City Council member Yassamin Ansari with a 44.6-44.5 lead over former state Sen. Raquel Terán—a margin of 42 votes.● NH-02: Businessman Vikram Mansharamani this week publicized an endorsement from former Rep. Charlie Bass, who is the last Republican to represent New Hampshire's 2nd District, ahead of his Sept. 10 primary.Mansharamani ended June with more money available than any of the 13 Republicans running to succeed retiring Rep. Annie Kuster, the Democrat who unseated Bass in 2012. Joe Biden won this constituency by a solid 54-45 margin in 2020, though, and Republicans would need a lot to go right to flip it.Ballot Measures● AZ Ballot: The conservative majority on the Arizona Supreme Court sided with GOP legislators on Wednesday when it ruled they could describe a fetus as an "unborn human being" when summarizing the state's abortion rights amendment in the guide that will be mailed to all voters.Abortion rights opponents, though, are hoping the state's highest court will deliver them a much bigger victory later this month by keeping the amendment from even going before voters. Arizona Right to Life is arguing that a separate 200-word summary that is set to appear on the ballot is "inherently misleading and confusing." The group appealed after a lower court judge rejected this argument, and 12 News says that the courts have an Aug. 22 deadline to make final decisions on ballot measures.The state Supreme Court in 2018 kept an education tax measure from reaching the ballot determining it did not do enough to explain how it would function. The same body, however, allowed a similar measure to appear on the ballot two years later after concluding the summary "did not create a significant danger of confusion or unfairness." But while voters narrowly approved the plan, it was overturned in court after an unfavorable ruling from justices concerning state restrictions on education spending.● FL Ballot, FL-Sen: A pair of new Florida polls find that, while a majority of voters back the state's abortion rights amendment, it's a few points below the 60% it needs to pass. The Canadian firm Mainstreet Research's survey for Florida Atlantic University places Amendment 4 ahead 56-21, while Suffolk University's poll for USA TODAY and WSVN-TV has the "yes" side leading 58-35.Both polls also took a look at the battle to pass Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational legalization. Suffolk showed it passing 63-33, but Mainstreet placed "yes" ahead 56-29—still a few points short of the requisite 60%.Only Mainstreet's release included numbers for the likely matchup between GOP Sen. Rick Scott and former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, and it gives the Republican a small 47-43 advantage. The firm's last poll in June placed Scott ahead 45-43, which was also one of the best results for Mucarsel-Powell we've seen.National Democrats, however, have yet to announce any major ad reservations in an expensive state that Donald Trump is still favored to win. Mainstreet finds him beating Kamala Harris 49-46, while Suffolk gives him a comparable 47-42 advantage. Mucarsel-Powell still needs to win next Tuesday's Democratic primary before she can fully focus on Scott, but there's little indication that she'll have any trouble. Her most prominent intraparty foe, businessman Stanley Campbell, saw his campaign manager quit two weeks ago over what she described as a disorganized effort.Poll PileMT-Sen: American Pulse Research and Polling (R) for KULR-TV: Tim Sheehy (R): 51, Jon Tester (D-inc): 45PA-Sen: Quinnipiac University: Bob Casey (D-inc): 52, Dave McCormick (R): 44 (50-47 Harris in two-way, 48-45 Harris with third-party candidates (Jan.: 53-43 Casey)The Montana poll did not include the two minor party candidates on the ballot. Ad RoundupMI-Sen: DSCC - anti-Mike Rogers (R); One Nation - anti-Elissa Slotkin (D); Great Lakes Conservative Fund - anti-SlotkinPA-Sen: Dave McCormick (R) - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc)WI-Sen: Eric Hovde (R) (here and here); One Nation - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc) ($7.5 million buy)NH-Gov: Chuck Morse (R) - anti-Kelly Ayotte (R)CA-41: Americans 4 Security - anti-Will Rollins (D)MI-08: Paul Junge (R) - anti-Kristen McDonald Rivet (D); DCCC - anti-JungeNY-17: Mike Lawler (R-inc) and the NRCC (part of $5 million buy)PA-08: Rob Bresnahan (R) and the NRCCCampaign Action

538 breaks down six high-profile primaries for the U.S. Senate and House in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded ContentLeading Off● NE-Sen-A: Independent candidate Dan Osborn's hopes of pulling off an upset in Nebraska against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, who has no Democratic opponent, got a major boost in late July after a third-party contender dropped out and endorsed him to avoid playing spoiler. That minor party, known as Legal Marijuana NOW, could still name a replacement, but it has already missed a self-imposed deadline to do so.Polling sponsored by Osborn has shown him in a close battle against Fischer, but notably, his surveys did not include Kerry Eddy, the former Legal Marijuana NOW candidate.An April poll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling placed Fischer ahead by a small 37-33 margin in a two-way race. A subsequent poll jointly conducted last month by the GOP firm Red Wave Strategy Group and the Democratic pollster Impact Research, meanwhile, had the two candidates deadlocked at 42 apiece.By contrast, a Torchlight Strategies survey for Fischer’s campaign taken at the same time as Osborn's most recent poll named all three candidates. It reached a very different conclusion, giving Fisher a wide 50-24 lead, with Eddy taking a sizable 9%.Eddy now won't garner a single vote, but her departure was no surprise. In fact, it appears to have been the plan all along."I am running to support an independent candidate—Dan Osborn," Eddy explained on her website when she launched her campaign earlier this year. "I'll make sure that we all unite around whoever the strongest candidate is to defeat Deb Fischer in November."Her bid prompted backlash from the Legal Marijuana NOW Party, as the Lincoln Journal Star's Andrew Wegley reported, but she nevertheless defeated Kenneth Peterson 71-29 in a tiny primary that saw just over a thousand voters participate. (Eddy, an artist and Air National Guard veteran, had derided Peterson as a "weed bro"; Peterson described himself to Wegley as "probably the poorest senatorial candidate probably in the country.")Eddy, however, had some help in overcoming the hostility of the party she was nominally seeking to represent: A super PAC called Nebraska Railroaders For Public Safety spent about $35,000 on mailers and digital ads boosting her campaign. The PAC, whose biggest funder is Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman, has also supported Osborn, who has said he's unsure which party he'd caucus with in the Senate should he win.The Legal Marijuana NOW Party reacted angrily to Eddy's withdrawal, posting on Facebook late last month that Osborn had tried to "rig" their primary and claiming that it would "have a replacement candidate withing the week."But the party, which has until Sept. 3 to make such a move, has yet to act. It apparently held an online convention on Aug. 4 but failed to advance an alternative, and the Nebraska secretary of state's office tells Daily Kos Elections that the party has not filed any paperwork naming a new nominee.Even without a third-party rival on the ballot, Osborn faces difficult odds in his quest to unseat Fischer given Nebraska's strong conservative tilt. But independents in other red states and districts have had success in recent years in closing the gap against Republicans if not defeating them outright when Democrats have chosen not to field a candidate of their own—success that Osborn is hoping to replicate.And one powerful Democratic group is a believer. The Sixteen Thirty Fund, which is one of the best-funded Democratic organizations in the country, is financing a super PAC called Retire Career Politicians. (It's also contributed to the Nebraska Railroaders PAC.)According to AdImpact, Retire Career Politicians is spending at least $215,000 on an opening TV ad campaign that praises Osborn as an alternative to politicians who "couldn't be doing less" as "working families struggle to make ends meet." That statement is accompanied by a photo of President Joe Biden and Donald Trump to bolster the case that Osborn sits outside the two-party system.The narrator continues by praising the candidate's service in the Army and Navy and calling him a "lifelong Nebraskan and a leader of his labor union." The spot then plays audio of Osborn declaring, "Only 2% of all of Congress come from the working class. There's nobody like me in the United States Senate."Nebraska's other Senate seat is also on the ballot this year in a special election for the remaining two years of former Republican Sen. Ben Sasse's term. Sasse resigned at the end of the last Congress to become president of the University of Florida, a post he announced he was relinquishing last month because of his wife's health struggles. Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, whom Gov. Jim Pillen appointed to replace Sasse, does have a Democratic opponent, but his contest against Preston Love has attracted little attention.election recaps● HI State House: Former state Board of Education member Kim Coco Iwamoto denied renomination to state House Speaker Scott Saiki, who has spent close to eight years as one of Hawaii's most powerful politicians, 53-47 in Saturday's Democratic primary. Iwamoto, who is unopposed in the general election, is now set to become the first openly transgender member of the chamber. Iwamoto's victory over Saiki, who narrowly fended her off in both 2020 and 2022, came after she argued that the speaker failed to address the rising cost of living in a Honolulu district where condo insurance costs have spiked. The impact of her victory, though, is already being felt well outside the boundaries of the 25th District."[I]t will be somewhat of a shock to the system at the Legislature if the speaker doesn’t prevail," Democratic Gov. Josh Green, who supported Saiki, told Hawaii News Now on election night. This jolt is fine with Iwamoto, who said that evening of her opponent, "I wasn’t just, you know, campaigning against him. I was campaigning against the entire Democratic establishment in some ways."Governors● DE-Gov: A new poll by Concord Public Opinion Partners on behalf of Education Reform Now Advocacy shows New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer with a 30-23 edge over Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long in the Sept. 10 Democratic primary, while National Wildlife Federation leader Collin O'Mara takes 8%.Education Reform Now Advocacy is a nonprofit affiliated with Democrats for Education Reform, a PAC that supports charter schools. It is unclear whether the latter group has a rooting interest in this contest.This is the first poll this year to show Meyer leading, but it's also the first that was conducted after state officials released a damaging report late last month concluding that Hall-Long's campaign had violated campaign finance laws. A mid-July survey from Public Policy Polling for Hall-Long's supporters at the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association found her leading Meyer 31-19. Meanwhile, an early-July poll from Slingshot Strategies for Citizens for a New Delaware Way, which opposes Hall-Long, found the race tied, at 27-27.Mayors & County Leaders● Sacramento, CA Mayor: Retiring Mayor Darrell Steinberg declared Tuesday that he was backing Assemblyman Kevin McCarty in the November nonpartisan election to replace him as leader of California's dark blue capital city.The Sacramento Bee's Theresa Clift writes that Steinberg, who confirmed his "support" only after the paper learned he'd made a donation to McCarty back in March. Steinberg did not say he was endorsing the legislator, but as we've written before, this is a distinction without a difference.McCarty—a Democrat whose social media profile declares, "* NOT Kevin McCartHy, Seriously!"—faces physician Flojaune Cofer, who is the endorsed candidate of the local chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America. Cofer, who would be the first Black woman elected to lead Sacramento, led McCarty 29-22 in the March nonpartisan primary. Neither of the two candidates who finished just behind him, former state Sen. Richard Pan and City Councilman Steve Hansen, appear to have backed either McCarty or Cofer.Poll PileNC-Gov: Cygnal (R) for the Carolina Journal and the John Locke Foundation: Josh Stein (D): 43, Mark Robinson (R): 38, Mike Ross (L): 3, Wayne Turner (G): 1 (47-44 Trump with third-party candidates) (May: 39-39 gubernatorial tie)NC-AG: Cygnal (R): Dan Bishop (R): 42, Jeff Jackson (D): 38NC Supreme Court: Cygnal (R): Jefferson Griffin (R): 40, Allison Riggs (D-inc): 37San Francisco, CA Mayor: Sextant Strategies & Research (D) for the San Francisco Chronicle: London Breed (inc): 28, Mark Farrell: 20, Daniel Lurie: 17, Aaron Peskin: 12, Ahsha Safai: 5 (All candidates are Democrats.)Ad RoundupMT-Sen: Tim Sheehy (R) - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc)NM-Sen: Nella Domenici (R) and the NRSCWI-Sen: Restoration of America - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc)IA-03: Lanon Baccam (D)OH-09: Derek Merrin (R) and the NRCC - anti-Marcy Kaptur (D-inc)San Francisco, CA Mayor: Daniel LurieCampaign Action

Senate Democrats are feeling more confident about their chances of keeping the Senate majority with Vice President Harris leading the ticket, arguing her momentum could lift them despite a nightmare battleground map. The GOP has long been the favorite to take the Senate this fall because Democrats are defending more difficult-to-hold seats. Republicans need only [...]

The power of former President Donald Trump’s endorsement in battleground Wisconsin will be tested in a race for an open congressional seat in primary voting. The field for the state’s closely watched U.S. Senate race also will be officially set...

'Help to get across the finish line'

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded ContentLeading Off● AK-AL: Politico's Ally Mutnick reports that Vote Alaska Before Party, a Democratic group funded by House Majority PAC, is spending close to $1 million in an attempt to boost an unheralded Republican perennial candidate named Gerald Heikes in the Aug. 20 top-four primary.Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola and two prominent GOP foes, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and businessman Nick Begich, are poised to claim three of the spots in the instant-runoff general election. Democrats, however, seem convinced they'd benefit if that final slot goes to Heikes instead of one of the other eight minor candidates.Because of the unusual dynamics in this race, VABP appears to have decided that its best course of action is to treat Heikes like he's already of equal stature to Dahlstrom and Begich. The group's TV ad warns that "all three could join extremists in Washington to ban abortion, ban it in all cases, no exceptions." A separate digital ad focused only on Heikes by labeling him "too conservative on abortion."Mutnick writes that Democrats may be intervening on Heikes' behalf because they think it will help ensure that Begich is the top GOP vote-getter. Begich has pledged to end his campaign if he takes fewer votes than Dahlstrom later this month, a prospect that would delight the many Republicans he alienated before and during his two failed 2022 campaigns for this seat.Donald Trump and House GOP leaders are doing what they can to end Begich's third effort by endorsing Dahlstrom, who says she'll keep campaigning in the general election no matter what. Heikes, for his part, tells the Anchorage Daily News that he'd also continue to run if he secures a spot in round two. The candidate declared that, after he learned that the ardently anti-abortion lieutenant governor believed in exceptions for rape and incest, "I decided I’m just going to stick this one out and see what happens."Mutnick also notes that Peltola could benefit if a Republican like Heikes takes the fourth-place spot that might have instead gone to one of the six independent or third-party candidates. While none of them are well known, it's possible that moderate voters may prefer one of these options to Peltola and be reluctant to rank her second on their instant-runoff ballots. Heikes' supporters who share his hardline views on abortion, by contrast, might be unwilling to support Dahlstrom if he's making trouble for her in the fall.Still, as Mutnick notes, a 12-person race like this is difficult to meddle in. It also remains to be seen if Democrats will use the remaining time to damage Dahlstrom with the base—a tactic they often employ in conventional primaries to convince Republicans to nominate a weaker candidate​​—or if they'll continue to only boost Heikes.The Downballot● Tim Walz may be on the national ticket, but he's the ultimate downballot guy, so we've got to talk all about him on this week's episode of "The Downballot." We recount Walz's extensive electoral career, starting with his upset win for Congress as a "Fighting Dem" during the 2006 wave that began a streak of impressive overperformances continuing through his two bids for governor. We also explain exactly how Walz would be replaced if he's elected VP—and how his replacement would be replaced, and how that person would be replaced. Nothing is too weedy for us!Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's meaty primary night, which set the table for a host of competitive November elections and set some other candidates on a glide path to victory. The Davids discuss why the top of the ticket will likely determine the fate of Michigan's open Senate race; why candidate quality—and not outside money—was the most important factor in Rep. Cori Bush's defeat; and why Washington's top-two primary system should be banished from the face of the earth.Never miss an episode! Subscribe to "The Downballot" wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes every Thursday morning!Governors● NH-Gov: Retiring Gov. Chris Sununu on Wednesday endorsed former Sen. Kelly Ayotte ahead of the Sept. 10 Republican primary to succeed him. Ayotte was already the GOP frontrunner against former state Senate President Chuck Morse, a longtime Sununu ally who has struggled to raise money.House● FL Redistricting: Florida's Supreme Court has finally set oral arguments for Sept. 12 in the challenge to Republicans' congressional gerrymander, which plaintiffs argue violated the state constitution's ban on racial discrimination by dismantling the plurality-Black 5th District. The new map turned it from a safely Democratic seat into a heavily white district, renumbered the 4th, that easily flipped to the GOP in 2022. Thanks to delays by conservative-dominated appellate courts, Florida would not use a new map until at least 2026 even if plaintiffs prevail.● TN-05: Republican Rep. Andy Ogles has now confirmed that the FBI searched his phone last Friday over potential campaign finance violations, a statement he made hours after NewsChanel 5 Nashville's Phil Williams first reported the news. Federal officials have declined to comment, while the Washington Post relayed that Ogles' attorney claimed, "We are cooperating at this point and we will see where the investigation goes."Williams had previously uncovered how Ogles had fabricated much of his life story and filed false campaign finance reports in 2022 that claimed he had loaned his campaign $320,000. Ogles' earlier financial disclosure form did not even include a bank account or any other indication he could afford to make such a large loan, and he admitted the amount was a much smaller $20,000 in amended filings earlier this year.Separately, the nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center filed an ethics complaint in January that also accused Ogles of failing to report a credit line for $700,000 that he opened in September 2022. That was just one month after he won the competitive Republican primary for what was then a newly gerrymandered open seat, which Ogles went on to win by 56-42 that fall. Together, those two financial discrepancies add to $1 million.● WA-04: The Associated Press projects an all-Republican general election between former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler and Rep. Dan Newhouse, who is one of the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 riot. With an estimated 70% tabulated, Sessler leads with 31% as Newhouse edges out a third Republican, 2022 Senate nominee Tiffany Smiley, 25-19. Trump endorsed Sessler in April but announced over the weekend that he was also backing Smiley in this central Washington seat. Trump won here 57-40 four years ago.● WA-05: The AP has called the two general election spots for Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner, who was the GOP’s 2012 U.S. Senate nominee, and former Spokane County Democratic Party Chair Carmela Conroy. With an estimated 67% reporting, Baumgartner leads with 28% as Conroy beats out Republican state Rep. Jacquelin Maycumber 20-12 for second. Baumgartner will be favored to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers in a Spokane area seat that Donald Trump won 54-44 in 2020.● WA-06: The AP also projects that a pair of state senators, Democrat Emily Randall and Republican Drew MacEwen, will face off in the general election to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer in this reliably blue constituency. With an estimated 74% in, Randall is in first with 34% as MacEwen enjoys a 30-25 advantage over Kilmer's preferred successor, Democratic Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz. Joe Biden scored a 57-40 victory in this seat, which is based in the Olympic Peninsula and Tacoma, in 2020.● WI-08: The super PAC Speak Free or Die has now spent $1 million to promote former state Sen. Roger Roth or attack his intraparty rivals, state Sen. Andre Jacque and businessman Tony Wied, ahead of the Aug. 13 Republican primaries for the conservative 8th District. (That's primaries plural.) The only other outside spending here has been the nearly $100,000 that another pro-Roth group, Elect Principled Veterans Fund, has used to help the Air National Guard veteran.But Wied, who is the former owner of a dinosaur-themed chain of gas stations, is betting that he can offset all this with an ad where Donald Trump tells Roth to quit the race. Trump, in a rare direct-to-camera commercial for a downballot candidate, implores the audience to heed the words of "your favorite president" and vote for "a highly successful businessman and America first warrior who is running against RINO Roger Roth, who is no friend of MAGA."While Trump does not say what the former state senator has done to alienate him, the commercial displays an April Truth Social post where he dismisses Roth as "a 'clone' of Paul Ryan." (It's not clear who, if anyone, he's quoting there.) The ad continues with Trump declaring, "Roger should drop out of the race immediately because Tony's the guy as your next congressman." The spot does not mention Jacque.Secretaries of State● MO-SoS: Election conspiracy theorists scored a win in Tuesday's eight-person Republican primary for Missouri secretary of state when state Sen. Denny Hoskins, who is a founder of the state branch of the Freedom Caucus, defeated Green County Clerk Shane Schoeller 24-17.Hoskins celebrated his victory with a statement declaring, "[W]e have to ensure that none of the electoral fraud that took place in 2020 and stole the election from President Trump happens here." Schoeller, by contrast, declared during the campaign that it was "critically important that you work with everyone," including Democrats, when conducting elections.Hoskins, who is the favorite to defeat Democratic state Rep. Barbara Phifer in this conservative state, has called for requiring all ballots to be counted by hand. Election experts have found this practice is less accurate than the current system of electronic tabulations, while the Kansas City Star's Jonathan Shorman says that such a switch would overwhelm local officials in Kansas City and St. Louis. Hoskins also wants to ban absentee voting for most voters and instead designate Election Day as a holiday.Elections also aren't the only area where the nominee has spread conspiracy theories. Hoskins is one of three GOP state senators who is being sued for defamation after they shared social media posts that falsely suggested that a bystander was an "illegal immigrant" who was linked to February's fatal shooting at the Kansas City Chiefs' Super Bowl victory parade.Hoskins wasn't the only hardline Republican who was competing for the nomination to replace Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, who took a disappointing third place in the primary for governor. The field also included state House Speaker Dean Plocher, who is at the center of multiple scandals, and state Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman, who is one of the legislature's most ardent opponents of abortion rights: The two took fourth and fifth place, respectively. That was still better, though than the sixth-place finish for homophobic troll Valentina Gomez.Prosecutors & Sheriffs● Jackson County, MO Prosecutor: Kansas City director of public safety Melesa Johnson is poised to become the first Black person to serve as prosecutor for Jackson County, a populous and reliably blue community, following her victory in Tuesday's three-way Democratic primary. Johnson outpaced prosecutor John Gromowsky, a white candidate who drew unwelcome attention in June when he talked about "Black-on-Black crime," 48-26. The balance went to attorney Stephanie Burton.The trio was competing to replace retiring Democratic incumbent Jean Peters Baker, who was first appointed to this office in 2011. Johnson, who had the support of Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas, campaigned as a supporter of what she's called "transformative justice." She explained her approach to KSHB by saying, "I have no interest in being soft on crime, but I think we need to be smart on crime. Six out of seven people sentenced to incarceration will return to the communities they came from, so why not invest in their transformation?"Johnson also addressed her potential to make history in that same interview when she said, "It is baffling to me that in 2024, we are on the precipice of a potential first." She continued, "As it pertains to representation and electing diversity, and of course I am beyond qualified, so I am not leaning on my race as a metric to get elected, but I do feel we are at a time post-George Floyd, post-civil unrest, starting with Trayvon Martin, that we understand race does play a role in fighting crime and the criminal justice system."Poll PileWI-Sen: Marquette University Law School: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 51, Eric Hovde (R): 45, Phil Anderson (Disrupt the Corruption Party): 2, Thomas Leager (America First Party): 2 (50-49 Harris in two-way, 46-45 Harris with third-party candidates) (June: 52-47 Baldwin)Ad RoundupAZ-Sen: DSCC - anti-Kari Lake (R)FL-Sen: Rick Scott (R-inc)MD-Sen: Larry Hogan (R)MI-Sen: NRSC - anti-Elissa Slotkin (D); One Nation - anti-Slotkin (part of $9.4 million buy); DSCC - anti-Mike Rogers (R)MO-Sen: Lucas Kunce (D)MT-Sen: More Jobs, Less Government - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc)PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc); DSCC - anti-Dave McCormick (R) (here and here); McCormick - anti-CaseyTX-Sen: Colin Allred (D)WI-Sen: DSCC - anti-Eric Hovde (R)AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc) and the NRCC (in English and Spanish)FL-09: Darren Soto (D-inc) (in Spanish)IA-03: Zach Nunn (R-inc)MI-08: Paul Junge (R); Junge - anti-Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)NV-02: Greg Kidd (I)WA-03: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-inc) - anti-Joe Kent (R)WI-03: Derrick Van Orden (R-inc)Campaign Action

Eric Hovde is carrying out a run-of-the-mill pro-MAGA campaign that has included grumbling about electric vehicles.

More than 1,000 LGBTQ political leaders, celebrities and social media influencers on Wednesday announced their support for Vice President Harris's White House bid in an open letter meant to unite the community and mobilize voters. "As advocates, elected officials, organizations, and community leaders serving millions of LGBTQ+ Americans and our allies across the country, we urge [...]

A roaring crowd of battleground state voters greeted Vice President Kamala Harris in Wisconsin as she opened her Democratic political case against Republican former President Donald Trump. In her first rally since locking up the presidential nomination, she said Tuesday...

Harris Rallies Exuberant Democrats in Wisconsin: ‘The Baton Is in Our Hands’

“Kamala Harris represents a new generation of leadership for our country, and I know she has what it takes to win in November," said Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris on the South Lawn of the White House on July 11, 2022.

Voters are deeply skeptical about President Biden’s prospects, posing challenges for Senator Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin and other Democrats once thought to be relatively safe in their seats.

Chad Reznicek knows all too well the stigma surrounding mental health in rural Colorado.

With the DNC in Chicago just four weeks away, fight for votes in the Midwest battleground states remains fierce.

Numerous Republican candidates looking to unseat incumbent Senate Democrats are using their personal wealth to fund their campaigns.

Rep. Joyce Beatty, D-Ohio, voiced support for President Joe Biden remaining in the race when she appeared in Milwaukee on Thursday to challenge the message from the Republican convention.

Democrats in tough races in the 2024 elections are hoping President Joe Biden's poll numbers after the debate won't hurt them in November.

While Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, has six months remaining in his term, Democrats have made it clear they don't want him in office any longer.

Republicans’ confidence is growing about their chances of not just winning the White House but both chambers of Congress. But they're looking for a boost in Wisconsin.

The RNC marched into its second day Tuesday, showcasing classic GOP themes like border security and public safety that have become the centerpieces of former President Donald Trump’s campaign.

The RNC marched into its second day Tuesday, showcasing classic GOP themes like border security and public safety that have become the centerpieces of former President Donald Trump’s campaign.

The RNC marched into its second day Tuesday, showcasing classic GOP themes like border security and public safety that have become the centerpieces of former President Donald Trump’s campaign.

Sen. JD Vance appears on stage for a podium check at the Fiserv Forum before the start of the Tuesday session of the Republican National Convention.

Donald Trump may not be known for easily moving past a grudge. But Tuesday, he watched as former rivals urged the party to unite. Here are key Day 2 takeaways.

The Senate battlefield is increasingly locked in as Republicans turn their attention from the primaries to the November contests in a bid to turn the chamber red. Much has changed in the four months since The Hill last updated this space, including retirements, surprise candidacies and primary wins. Republicans have settled on nominees in key states as they look to [...]

The Senate battlefield is increasingly locked in as Republicans turn their attention from the primaries to the November contests in a bid to turn the chamber red. Much has changed in the four months since The Hill last updated this space, including retirements, surprise candidacies and primary wins. Republicans have settled on nominees in key states as they look to [...]

The Senate battlefield is increasingly locked in as Republicans turn their attention from the primaries to the November contests in a bid to turn the chamber red. Much has changed in the four months since The Hill last updated this space, including retirements, surprise candidacies and primary wins. Republicans have settled on nominees in key states as they look to [...]

The Senate battlefield is increasingly locked in as Republicans turn their attention from the primaries to the November contests in a bid to turn the chamber red. Much has changed in the four months since The Hill last updated this space, including retirements, surprise candidacies and primary wins. Republicans have settled on nominees in key states as they look to [...]

Wisconsin’s presidential primary this Tuesday will clear the way for a general election campaign that Democrats see as an opportunity unlike any in recent state history

Wisconsin’s presidential primary this Tuesday will clear the way for a general election campaign that Democrats see as an opportunity unlike any in recent state history

Wisconsin’s presidential primary Tuesday clears the way for a general election campaign that Democrats see as an opportunity unlike any in recent state history.

Republicans were much less vocal than their Democratic counterparts on Tuesday as the Supreme Court heard arguments in a challenge to the FDA's regulations making it easier to access the abortion pill.

Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wis., is seen outside the Capitol after a House vote last year.