04/27/2025 --dailykos
Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about. You’ll also find data-based updates on past Daily Kos reporting, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.Progressives raise hell—and big moneyA new poll of young Americans signals trouble for the Democratic establishment. Among Americans ages 18 to 29, the approval rating for congressional Democrats has plummeted 19 percentage points since spring 2017—from 42% to merely 23% this spring—according to Ipsos’ poll for the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics. Meanwhile, congressional Republicans are holding steady: 28% approval in 2017 and 29% now.So what do voters, young and older, want instead? Fundraising offers a hint. As Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and other progressives advocate for a new direction, a fresh wave of insurgent candidates is raking in serious cash, signaling that many in the Democratic base are done waiting for bold leadership.According to data from the Federal Election Commission, three progressives seeking to primary incumbent Democrats raised over $70,000 in the first quarter of 2025, excluding the campaigns’ loans, offsets, and figures labeled “other other receipts” in FEC data, and subtracting any refunds the campaigns may have issued.Two of the three challengers outpaced their district’s incumbent: Kat Abughazeleh, running in Illinois’ 9th District, raked in $378,596, followed by Elijah Manley, in Florida’s 20th, with $273,389. The third is Saikat Chakrabarti ($71,239, in California’s 11th), who was formerly Ocasio-Cortez’s chief of staff and whose fundraising lags far behind the incumbent he’s challenging: former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.xDatawrapper ContentAll three challengers present themselves as unapologetic fighters.Manley, a 26-year-old substitute teacher and progressive activist, raised 18 times what incumbent Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick did last quarter. He’s also sitting on over 40 times more cash on hand. Her poor numbers are likely tied to corruption allegations, but Manley’s haul speaks volumes either way.Then there’s Kat Abughazaleh, a 26-year-old journalist and activist who raised the most of the three—and in just one week.That’s in large part thanks to her viral campaign-kickoff video, in which she challenged the Democratic Party to “grow a fucking spine.” The message clearly resonated among a segment of the Democratic base restless with aging leadership. The thing is, while Abughazaleh has spoken a lot about Illinois’ 9th District not having had a competitive primary in decades, incumbent Rep. Jan Schakowsky is reportedly planning to announce in May that she won’t seek another term. So change is coming to the district either way. And Abughazaleh—who moved to Illinois last year and doesn’t yet live in the district, which is technically allowed—is sure to face competition from other Democrats with more of a tie to the area.Still, her message has clearly resonated with donors—and they’re not alone. A Change Research poll found that 90% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would prefer a moderate fighter over a quiet progressive, while an astonishing 95% would choose a progressive fighter over a quiet moderate. This preference holds across virtually all demographics.The message is clear: Democrats don’t just want new blood. They want someone with a pulse.Boom promised, bust deliveredStaring down a possible future of higher inflation and cost-raising tariffs, Americans have slapped President Donald Trump with his worst-ever approval rating on the economy, according to the new CNBC All-America Economic Survey.Just 43% of Americans approve of his economic performance, while 55% disapprove, putting him 12 points underwater on net.xDatawrapper ContentWhile Trump can still count on Republican voters’ support (for now), independent voters have turned sharply against him, with approval down 23 points from his average rating in his first term, according to CNBC. Democrats gave him a punishing -90-point net rating on the economy.The economy has long been voters’ top concern, and 2024 was no exception. Heading into the election, most voters told Gallup they trusted Trump more than Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris on the economy, no doubt believing he’d lower inflation and grocery prices as he repeatedly promised. Of course, we’ve seen how that’s turned out.Since returning to power, Trump has unleashed a storm of erratic economic moves: slapping tariffs on key allies, spooking investors with social media tirades, and trying to bully Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell into slashing interest rates. The result? Confidence in his economic leadership has cratered, according to this new data.And few expect a rebound. CNBC finds that 49% of Americans—including 83% of Democrats and 54% of independents—think the economy will get worse over the next year, the bleakest reading since 2023, which also tracks with broader recession warnings.xDatawrapper ContentEven Republicans may be losing faith in his economic stewardship. CNBC’s poll finds that many more GOP voters approve of Trump’s overall job performance than of his tariffs.He promised a boom. He’s delivering a bust. Wonder how that’ll play out for him in next year’s midterm elections.Americans worried about free pressEveryday Americans are worried about potential restrictions on the free press—but their level of worry largely depends on which side of the aisle they sit on.According to new Pew Research Center data, 69% of adults are concerned about possible restrictions on press freedom, a right enshrined in the First Amendment. That includes 43% who are “extremely” or “very” concerned. While the numbers are almost identical to what Pew found in 2024, the partisan split on concern has shifted. In 2024, more Republicans (47%) than Democrats (38%) were extremely or very concerned about possible restrictions on press freedom. But under Trump, that has basically flipped: 60% of Democrats are now extremely or very concerned, compared with just 28% of Republicans.xDatawrapper ContentThough former President Joe Biden wasn’t perfect on press freedom, it’s nothing compared with the way Trump has gone after the media, especially in his second term. Trump’s not just bashing reporters—he’s weaponizing the federal government against them. He’s suing CBS News for $10 billion and has pushed the Federal Communications Commission to investigate that network and others. He demanded that Congress strip nearly all federal funding from public broadcasters NPR and PBS. And he’s tried to control which outlets get access to the White House.He’s even aimed his rage at polling organizations, demanding they shut down if their numbers don’t flatter him. But what does he expect? He’s tanking the economy while his incompetent Cabinet fumbles behind the scenes. Of course, Americans aren’t thrilled with how things are going.Unsurprisingly, the people most worried about press freedom are the ones paying attention. Pew found that 49% of Americans closely following Trump’s presidency are “extremely” or “very” concerned about restrictions, compared with just 29% of those less tuned in.There’s a silver lining, though. Despite—or maybe because of—Trump’s attacks, support for press freedom is rising. Pew found that 77% of Americans now say a free press is “extremely” or “very” important to society’s well-being, up 4 points from 2024.Trump may want a media that exists solely to serve him. But so far, the country isn’t buying into that fantasy.Any updates?The House GOP wants to cut hundreds of billions of dollars from Medicaid and food stamps to fund tax cuts for the rich. It’s a giveaway the ultrawealthy may love, but voters, not so much. A survey model from Data for Progress finds that support for slashing Medicaid is below 15% in all 435 congressional districts. Trump’s online store may be hawking “Trump 2028” hats, but there’s a good chance those things wither in an overseas warehouse because Americans really, really don’t want him to (unconstitutionally) seek a third term. Three-quarters of Americans, including 53% of Republicans, oppose him trying to run again, according to a new Ipsos survey for Reuters.Most Republican women (64%) say managing their physical health is a top priority, but they’re also more likely than the average American to source health information from Facebook and Pinterest, according to a new Morning Consult poll. That second part may be why the pollster finds that GOP women are more likely than Democratic women to believe dubious health ideas, like falsely believing early childhood vaccines cause autism: 8% of Democratic women believe that misinformation, but 22% of Republican women do.Vibe checkIndependent voters are souring on Trump, especially over his tariff policies, but that doesn’t mean they’re warming to the Democratic Party. Just 15% of independent registered voters view the Democratic Party favorably, while a staggering 71% view it unfavorably, according to Civiqs as of Friday.Even more troubling, those numbers have worsened since Election Day. Despite Trump basically bulldozing parts of the federal government, independents don’t seem to be convinced Democrats are the better option. That could be due to many factors: uninspiring leadership, inconsistent messaging, and a lack of urgency from some Democrats in confronting Trump.It’s also likely that for many independents, the candidate matters more than the party. With the right messengers—and more backbone—Democrats have a shot at winning over independents.Andrew Mangan contributed research.Campaign Action
