08/13/2024 --dailykos
The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded ContentLeading Off● Primary Night: We've entered the homestretch of the 2024 primary season, but as Jeff Singer details in our election night preview, there's still plenty to watch Tuesday in Wisconsin and Minnesota.Badger State Democrats have a competitive battle to decide who will take on freshman Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden in an ancestrally blue southwestern Wisconsin seat that veered hard to the right after Donald Trump took over the GOP. This area, though, may not be lost to the Democrats. Van Orden only beat state Sen. Brad Pfaff 52-48 in 2022 after national Democrats canceled their ad reservations, while progressive Janet Protasiewicz decisively carried it months later in the officially nonpartisan state Supreme Court race.Van Orden is one of the last vulnerable House members anywhere in the nation who doesn't yet know the identity of his general election opponent. We'll all find out soon, though, if he'll be going up against businesswoman Rebecca Cooke, who took second to Pfaff in the last primary, or state Rep. Katrina Shankland. House Majority PAC has reserved millions in ad time to support whichever Democrat wins on Tuesday.There's more to see in the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. One Wisconsin Republican is about to find out if voters will nominate him after Trump himself told him to drop out, while the state GOP is hoping voters will approve two state constitutional amendments that would strip Democratic Gov. Tony Evers of key powers.Over in Minnesota, we're going to find out if Republicans are willing to gift the thumbs up to a far-right conspiracy theorist who, among other things, shared a map of public drinking fountains by writing, "Crime in Minneapolis...Out of control." You can find more on these races, and more, in Singer's preview.We'll be liveblogging the results at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting when the first polls close in the Midwest at 9 PM ET/8 PM local time. Join us for our complete coverage!Senate● OH-Sen: The National Republican Senatorial Committee has canceled its entire $700,000 TV reservation for Ohio's Senate race, reports AdImpact, but an unnamed source soon relayed to Politico's Ally Mutnick that it would instead run so-called hybrid ads with Republican nominee Bernie Moreno's campaign.This arrangement, as we explained when Democrats ran similar ads in an Oregon primary earlier this year, allows the NRSC and Moreno to share the cost of advertising and take advantage of federal rules requiring stations to charge lower rates to candidates rather than the higher rates third-party groups face.These hybrid spots, though, are subject to more stringent content requirements than commercials from candidates or outside groups. Most notably, the ads are required to reference a political party writ large, as opposed to just a single candidate.This rule, however, won't be much of an obstacle in a red state like Ohio: With the GOP poised to do well at the top of the ticket, a message broadly attacking the Democratic Party will likely be popular. Conversely, don't expect Democrats to pursue a similar strategy, because Sen. Sherrod Brown is trying to win over voters who are prepared to back Republicans in other races, including Donald Trump for president.The NRSC also utilized hybrid ads last cycle, though it didn't work out well. Rick Scott, the committee's chair, insisted that hybrid ads would allow the party to get more bang for its buck, but critics argued it would unnecessarily restrict the kind of messages it could run. In the end, the Senate Republican caucus wound up shrinking a seat thanks to the GOP's loss in Pennsylvania.But the NRSC's new chair, Steve Daines, seems convinced that this particular element of Scott's strategy wasn't to blame and has forged ahead with a new onslaught of hybrid ads. One unnamed operative, however, seemed to acknowledge the limitations of this approach, telling Reese Gorman of NOTUS that the committee "is relying on [the Senate Leadership Fund] and other outside groups to carry the super PAC message in Ohio and Montana."Governors● NJ-Gov: Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill recently confirmed her long-reported interest in running to succeed termed-out Gov. Phil Murphy by telling Axios, "I'm strongly considering running for governor in 2025. I'd make that decision after Election Day."Fellow Rep. Josh Gottheimer is also publicly mulling entering next year's Democratic primary, though not everyone thinks either House member still needs to decide on anything. Politico's Matt Friedman wrote in June that both Gottheimer and Sherrill will each announce they're in after they're reelected in November even though they're already "all-but-running."The Democratic field to succeed Murphy already includes the mayors of New Jersey's two largest cities, Ras Baraka of Newark and Steven Fulop of Jersey City. The primary also features former state Senate President Steve Sweeney and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, who recently finished his stint as mayor of Montclair.House● NH-02: Former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern has earned the endorsement of SEA/SEIU Local 1984, an influential labor group that represents state employees, ahead of the Sept. 10 Democratic primary for the 2nd District.● NJ-09: Democratic Rep. Bill Pascrell was "rushed back to the hospital" on Sunday evening less than a week after he was discharged from a rehabilitation facility, the New Jersey Globe was first to report. The 87-year-old congressman's team did not initially provide information about his condition.The Globe also relays that local Democrats are now working to fill vacant seats on the local county committees in case they're needed to pick a new nominee should Pascrell end his reelection campaign. The story notes that Aug. 27 is the deadline for Pascrell to drop out in time for him to be replaced on the ballot, though judges have given parties extra time in the past. New Jersey's 9th District, which is based in North Jersey, favored Joe Biden 59-40 in 2020.● OH-13: The NRCC has released an internal survey from Cygnal that shows freshman Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes with a small 44-40 advantage over Republican Kevin Coughlin in the race for Ohio's 13th District, a contest where we hadn't previously seen any polling.The memo for this poll, which was first publicized by the National Journal's James Downs, did not include 2024 presidential numbers. President Joe Biden four years ago scored a small 51-48 win in this constituency, which includes the Akron and Canton areas.● TX-18: Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner has released a list of endorsements from 30 of the 88 precinct chairs in the Harris County Democratic Party who will decide Tuesday who will replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee on the general election ballot. The eventual nominee will have no trouble in this dark blue seat, which includes parts of central and northern Houston.Turner is one of several notable names who are competing to succeed Jackson Lee in the next Congress. The roster includes two notable candidates who unsuccessfully challenged Jackson Lee for renomination: state Rep. Jarvis Johnson, who lost in 2010, and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, who failed to beat the incumbent earlier this year. The field also features state Rep. Christina Morales, Houston City Council member Letitia Plummer, and Corisha Rogers, who is a local party official.Obituaries● Steve Symms: Idaho Republican Steve Symms, an ardent conservative who won his Senate seat in 1980 by narrowly unseating the state's last Democratic senator, Frank Church, died Friday at the age of 86. The Idaho Statesman's Ian Max Stevenson has more on Symms' volatile career, including his narrow 1986 reelection win and his role spreading a damaging smear against Democrats in the 1988 presidential campaign, in his obituary.Poll PileMI-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Elissa Slotkin (D): 46, Mike Rogers (R): 43 (50-46 Harris in two-way, 48-43 Harris with third-party candidates)MI-Sen: Bullfinch Group for The Independent Center: Slotkin (D): 48, Rogers (R): 38 (48-43 Harris in two-way, 46-40 Harris with third-party candidates)PA-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Bob Casey (D-inc): 51, Dave McCormick (R): 37 (50-46 Harris in two-way, 46-44 Harris with third-party candidates) (July: 50-42 Casey)PA-Sen: Bullfinch Group for The Independent Center: Casey (D-inc): 51, McCormick (R): 39 (49-45 Harris in two-way, 45-41 Harris with third-party candidates)WI-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 51, Eric Hovde (R): 44 (50-46 Harris in two-way, 49-43 Harris with third-party candidates) (May: 49-42 Baldwin) WI-Sen: Bullfinch Group for The Independent Center: Baldwin (D-inc): 50, Hovde (R): 41 (51-42 Harris in two-way, 49-40 Harris with third-party candidates) NC-Gov: YouGov Blue (D) for Carolina Forward: Josh Stein (D): 46, Mark Robinson (R): 36 (46-46 presidential tie with third-party candidates) NC-AG: YouGov Blue (D) for Carolina Forward: Jeff Jackson (D): 42, Dan Bishop (R): 40 NC Supreme Court: YouGov Blue (D) for Carolina Forward: Allison Riggs (D-inc): 42, Jefferson Griffin (R): 41Ad PileFL-Sen: Stanley Campbell (D)NV-Sen: Sam Brown (R); Brown and the NRSCPA-Sen: Dave McCormick (R) - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc)DE-Gov: Matt Meyer (D)FL-01: Matt Gaetz (R-inc)MI-08: Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) - anti-Paul Junge (R)MT-01: Monica Tranel (D) - anti-Ryan Zinke (R-inc)NH-01: Russell Prescott (R)PA-01: Ashley Ehasz (D) - anti-Brian Fitzpatrick (R-inc)Campaign Action
