Nicolas LaLota

What will Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) do? That’s the quiet question bouncing around Washington this month as the parties race furiously toward Election Day — when both the House and White House are up for grabs — and former President Trump is already laying the foundation for challenging the results if he loses. Johnson will [...]

Data: AdImpact, Cook Political Report; Chart: Thomas Oide/AxiosWith dreams of going big, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) are pouring millions into long-shot targets.Why it matters: The House majority will be decided in little more than two dozen toss-up races, but both sides crave the shot at a substantial majority.🔎 Call them "squinter races." They aren't sleepers, given the spending. But when one party squints, they can see a path to victory.That creates a must-do: Pick off safe(er) seats on the other side, or at least make them spend big on defense.🤑 The DCCC and the Jeffries-linked House Majority PAC have invested $21 million into flipping a half dozen GOP-held districts rated "lean" or "likely Republican" by Cook Political Report.The NRCC and Johnson's Congressional Leadership Fund have spent around $16.7 million on seven Democratic-held districts rated "lean" or "likely Democratic."Zoom in: Democrats are going after six of Cook's 14 "lean" and "likely" Republican seats.While Republicans are targeting seven Democratic seats, they represent a much smaller proportion of the possible targets.Said one Democratic strategist: "This is what you're able to do when you have the bigger checking account."Driving the news: Two "squinters" recently came into focus for Democrats when Cook moved Iowa's 1st and 3rd districts from "lean Republican" to toss-up.The same happened for Republicans when Cook changed Virginia's 7th district from "lean Democrat" to a jump-ball.Democrats have poured $5.5 million into Iowa-1 and $2.1 million in Iowa-3, according to data from AdImpact. Republicans spent $1.8 million in Virginia-7.Zoom out: Three main factors can put a district on the target list, Republican and Democratic strategists who work on House races told us.1) Weak incumbent: For Democrats, targets include Reps. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wisc.), Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) and Scott Perry (R-Pa.).For Republicans, it's members like Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), who they see as facing the first truly tough challenge of her 40-year career in a district that voted for former President Trump in 2020.2) Strong challenger: Democrats are enamored with the backgrounds of candidates such as Monica Tranel, a former Olympian who's challenging Zinke, and Janelle Stelson, a TV anchor running against Perry.Republicans are leaning on the diversity of their candidate slate in these districts. That includes Rep. Pat Ryan's (D-N.Y.) challenger Alison Esposito, Rep. Jahana Hayes' (D-Conn.) challenger George Logan and former Rep. Mayra Flores, who's running against Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas).3) Promising fundamentals: House Democrats hope backlash to abortion laws in redder states like Iowa will drive turnout. They're also counting on a boost from competitive Senate races in Montana, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.Republicans are hoping for a second wave of backlash against Democrats in California and New York that fueled their 2022 victory.The bottom line: Look for more ad buys. Democrats have plenty of cash to throw around.The DCCC last month added John Avlon and Whitney Fox, the challengers to Reps. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), to their "Red to Blue" program. Both districts are rated "likely Republican."

Five states redrew their district lines and the changes could impact who wins the House in the 2024 election.

Two years after Democrats lost five House seats in New York as Republicans capitalized on voter concerns about crime, Hochul – who won re-election by an unusually narrow margin that year – is doing all she can to make sure...

Former President Trump's latest inflammatory remarks about Jewish voters have Republicans in Congress again trying to perform a careful balancing act.Why it matters: It is a dynamic with which GOP lawmakers will have to familiarize themselves if Trump is elected president in November.Driving the news: Trump said Thursday during an Israeli American Council event on combatting antisemitism, "If I don't win this election — and Jewish people would have a lot to do with that, 60% are voting for the enemy — Israel will cease to exist in two years."He also said that any Jewish voter who supports Vice President Harris "should have their head examined."It's the latest in a series of critical remarks the former president has made towards Jewish voters who support Democrats.What they're saying: A handful of Republicans, asked about Trump's comments, offered what amounted to light pushback against their party's nominee."During this difficult time for Israel, we have to remain focused on supporting our democratic ally and combating all forms of antisemitism to protect our Jewish community," said swing-district Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.).Another vulnerable House Republican, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Trump is "not as smooth as we want," but added that "Jewish voters are supporting him in record numbers."Zoom in: One House Republican close to Trump offered more blistering criticism of the former president's comments, but declined to go on the record."I'm not going to justify his comments," the lawmaker said, arguing that Jewish voters make up a relatively small portion of the electorate and would not be responsible for a Trump loss.Jewish people made up about 2.4% of the U.S. population as of 2020, according to the Pew Research Center.The House Republican added that they "don't like this rhetoric," also citing Trump's comments about Haitian immigrants: "I think it's awful ... I think it's disgusting."Zoom out: Several House Republicans, including those in swing-districts or those with large Jewish populations, simply declined to weigh in."No comment," said Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.)."I didn't hear him say that," said Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.)."I don't even know what you're talking about. No comment," said Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.).The other side: Several other Republicans leapt to Trump's defense or argued that his comments won't hurt Republicans with Jewish voters. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) argued that Trump was "talking about the fact that the Jewish community is going to have a big voice in this election."Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) said that he hasn't seen Trump's comments, but "the Republican Conference, and President Trump when he was in office, have stood by Israel every step of the way."Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) said Democrats "have abided antisemitism on our campuses and helped fuel a surge in hate crimes - no matter [what] your religion is, I don't know how you vote for it."

Donald Trump supporters were greeted by tight security for a rally Wednesday at Nassau Coliseum on Long Island.

'I hope it doesn’t hold up the funding'

House Republicans are expected to vote on a stopgap spending bill that House Speaker Mike Johnson is backing sometime this week.

'Essential that justice continues to be served'

More than a dozen House Republicans on Tuesday wrote to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) asking him not to axe clean energy tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) if the GOP maintains or expands its House majority next year. In the letter, first shared with Politico’s E&E News and led by Rep. Andrew Garbarino [...]

Congressional Democrats in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and beyond are seeing an outpouring of volunteers to help Vice President Kamala Harris and counter Republican Donald Trump

The head of the Pennsylvania State Police told Congress on Tuesday that the planning for former President Donald Trump's July 13 rally was no different from dozens of other events coordinated with the Secret Service.