08/08/2024 --dailykos
The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded ContentLeading Off● AK-AL: Politico's Ally Mutnick reports that Vote Alaska Before Party, a Democratic group funded by House Majority PAC, is spending close to $1 million in an attempt to boost an unheralded Republican perennial candidate named Gerald Heikes in the Aug. 20 top-four primary.Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola and two prominent GOP foes, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and businessman Nick Begich, are poised to claim three of the spots in the instant-runoff general election. Democrats, however, seem convinced they'd benefit if that final slot goes to Heikes instead of one of the other eight minor candidates.Because of the unusual dynamics in this race, VABP appears to have decided that its best course of action is to treat Heikes like he's already of equal stature to Dahlstrom and Begich. The group's TV ad warns that "all three could join extremists in Washington to ban abortion, ban it in all cases, no exceptions." A separate digital ad focused only on Heikes by labeling him "too conservative on abortion."Mutnick writes that Democrats may be intervening on Heikes' behalf because they think it will help ensure that Begich is the top GOP vote-getter. Begich has pledged to end his campaign if he takes fewer votes than Dahlstrom later this month, a prospect that would delight the many Republicans he alienated before and during his two failed 2022 campaigns for this seat.Donald Trump and House GOP leaders are doing what they can to end Begich's third effort by endorsing Dahlstrom, who says she'll keep campaigning in the general election no matter what. Heikes, for his part, tells the Anchorage Daily News that he'd also continue to run if he secures a spot in round two. The candidate declared that, after he learned that the ardently anti-abortion lieutenant governor believed in exceptions for rape and incest, "I decided I’m just going to stick this one out and see what happens."Mutnick also notes that Peltola could benefit if a Republican like Heikes takes the fourth-place spot that might have instead gone to one of the six independent or third-party candidates. While none of them are well known, it's possible that moderate voters may prefer one of these options to Peltola and be reluctant to rank her second on their instant-runoff ballots. Heikes' supporters who share his hardline views on abortion, by contrast, might be unwilling to support Dahlstrom if he's making trouble for her in the fall.Still, as Mutnick notes, a 12-person race like this is difficult to meddle in. It also remains to be seen if Democrats will use the remaining time to damage Dahlstrom with the base—a tactic they often employ in conventional primaries to convince Republicans to nominate a weaker candidate—or if they'll continue to only boost Heikes.The Downballot● Tim Walz may be on the national ticket, but he's the ultimate downballot guy, so we've got to talk all about him on this week's episode of "The Downballot." We recount Walz's extensive electoral career, starting with his upset win for Congress as a "Fighting Dem" during the 2006 wave that began a streak of impressive overperformances continuing through his two bids for governor. We also explain exactly how Walz would be replaced if he's elected VP—and how his replacement would be replaced, and how that person would be replaced. Nothing is too weedy for us!Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's meaty primary night, which set the table for a host of competitive November elections and set some other candidates on a glide path to victory. The Davids discuss why the top of the ticket will likely determine the fate of Michigan's open Senate race; why candidate quality—and not outside money—was the most important factor in Rep. Cori Bush's defeat; and why Washington's top-two primary system should be banished from the face of the earth.Never miss an episode! Subscribe to "The Downballot" wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes every Thursday morning!Governors● NH-Gov: Retiring Gov. Chris Sununu on Wednesday endorsed former Sen. Kelly Ayotte ahead of the Sept. 10 Republican primary to succeed him. Ayotte was already the GOP frontrunner against former state Senate President Chuck Morse, a longtime Sununu ally who has struggled to raise money.House● FL Redistricting: Florida's Supreme Court has finally set oral arguments for Sept. 12 in the challenge to Republicans' congressional gerrymander, which plaintiffs argue violated the state constitution's ban on racial discrimination by dismantling the plurality-Black 5th District. The new map turned it from a safely Democratic seat into a heavily white district, renumbered the 4th, that easily flipped to the GOP in 2022. Thanks to delays by conservative-dominated appellate courts, Florida would not use a new map until at least 2026 even if plaintiffs prevail.● TN-05: Republican Rep. Andy Ogles has now confirmed that the FBI searched his phone last Friday over potential campaign finance violations, a statement he made hours after NewsChanel 5 Nashville's Phil Williams first reported the news. Federal officials have declined to comment, while the Washington Post relayed that Ogles' attorney claimed, "We are cooperating at this point and we will see where the investigation goes."Williams had previously uncovered how Ogles had fabricated much of his life story and filed false campaign finance reports in 2022 that claimed he had loaned his campaign $320,000. Ogles' earlier financial disclosure form did not even include a bank account or any other indication he could afford to make such a large loan, and he admitted the amount was a much smaller $20,000 in amended filings earlier this year.Separately, the nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center filed an ethics complaint in January that also accused Ogles of failing to report a credit line for $700,000 that he opened in September 2022. That was just one month after he won the competitive Republican primary for what was then a newly gerrymandered open seat, which Ogles went on to win by 56-42 that fall. Together, those two financial discrepancies add to $1 million.● WA-04: The Associated Press projects an all-Republican general election between former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler and Rep. Dan Newhouse, who is one of the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 riot. With an estimated 70% tabulated, Sessler leads with 31% as Newhouse edges out a third Republican, 2022 Senate nominee Tiffany Smiley, 25-19. Trump endorsed Sessler in April but announced over the weekend that he was also backing Smiley in this central Washington seat. Trump won here 57-40 four years ago.● WA-05: The AP has called the two general election spots for Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner, who was the GOP’s 2012 U.S. Senate nominee, and former Spokane County Democratic Party Chair Carmela Conroy. With an estimated 67% reporting, Baumgartner leads with 28% as Conroy beats out Republican state Rep. Jacquelin Maycumber 20-12 for second. Baumgartner will be favored to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers in a Spokane area seat that Donald Trump won 54-44 in 2020.● WA-06: The AP also projects that a pair of state senators, Democrat Emily Randall and Republican Drew MacEwen, will face off in the general election to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer in this reliably blue constituency. With an estimated 74% in, Randall is in first with 34% as MacEwen enjoys a 30-25 advantage over Kilmer's preferred successor, Democratic Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz. Joe Biden scored a 57-40 victory in this seat, which is based in the Olympic Peninsula and Tacoma, in 2020.● WI-08: The super PAC Speak Free or Die has now spent $1 million to promote former state Sen. Roger Roth or attack his intraparty rivals, state Sen. Andre Jacque and businessman Tony Wied, ahead of the Aug. 13 Republican primaries for the conservative 8th District. (That's primaries plural.) The only other outside spending here has been the nearly $100,000 that another pro-Roth group, Elect Principled Veterans Fund, has used to help the Air National Guard veteran.But Wied, who is the former owner of a dinosaur-themed chain of gas stations, is betting that he can offset all this with an ad where Donald Trump tells Roth to quit the race. Trump, in a rare direct-to-camera commercial for a downballot candidate, implores the audience to heed the words of "your favorite president" and vote for "a highly successful businessman and America first warrior who is running against RINO Roger Roth, who is no friend of MAGA."While Trump does not say what the former state senator has done to alienate him, the commercial displays an April Truth Social post where he dismisses Roth as "a 'clone' of Paul Ryan." (It's not clear who, if anyone, he's quoting there.) The ad continues with Trump declaring, "Roger should drop out of the race immediately because Tony's the guy as your next congressman." The spot does not mention Jacque.Secretaries of State● MO-SoS: Election conspiracy theorists scored a win in Tuesday's eight-person Republican primary for Missouri secretary of state when state Sen. Denny Hoskins, who is a founder of the state branch of the Freedom Caucus, defeated Green County Clerk Shane Schoeller 24-17.Hoskins celebrated his victory with a statement declaring, "[W]e have to ensure that none of the electoral fraud that took place in 2020 and stole the election from President Trump happens here." Schoeller, by contrast, declared during the campaign that it was "critically important that you work with everyone," including Democrats, when conducting elections.Hoskins, who is the favorite to defeat Democratic state Rep. Barbara Phifer in this conservative state, has called for requiring all ballots to be counted by hand. Election experts have found this practice is less accurate than the current system of electronic tabulations, while the Kansas City Star's Jonathan Shorman says that such a switch would overwhelm local officials in Kansas City and St. Louis. Hoskins also wants to ban absentee voting for most voters and instead designate Election Day as a holiday.Elections also aren't the only area where the nominee has spread conspiracy theories. Hoskins is one of three GOP state senators who is being sued for defamation after they shared social media posts that falsely suggested that a bystander was an "illegal immigrant" who was linked to February's fatal shooting at the Kansas City Chiefs' Super Bowl victory parade.Hoskins wasn't the only hardline Republican who was competing for the nomination to replace Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, who took a disappointing third place in the primary for governor. The field also included state House Speaker Dean Plocher, who is at the center of multiple scandals, and state Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman, who is one of the legislature's most ardent opponents of abortion rights: The two took fourth and fifth place, respectively. That was still better, though than the sixth-place finish for homophobic troll Valentina Gomez.Prosecutors & Sheriffs● Jackson County, MO Prosecutor: Kansas City director of public safety Melesa Johnson is poised to become the first Black person to serve as prosecutor for Jackson County, a populous and reliably blue community, following her victory in Tuesday's three-way Democratic primary. Johnson outpaced prosecutor John Gromowsky, a white candidate who drew unwelcome attention in June when he talked about "Black-on-Black crime," 48-26. The balance went to attorney Stephanie Burton.The trio was competing to replace retiring Democratic incumbent Jean Peters Baker, who was first appointed to this office in 2011. Johnson, who had the support of Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas, campaigned as a supporter of what she's called "transformative justice." She explained her approach to KSHB by saying, "I have no interest in being soft on crime, but I think we need to be smart on crime. Six out of seven people sentenced to incarceration will return to the communities they came from, so why not invest in their transformation?"Johnson also addressed her potential to make history in that same interview when she said, "It is baffling to me that in 2024, we are on the precipice of a potential first." She continued, "As it pertains to representation and electing diversity, and of course I am beyond qualified, so I am not leaning on my race as a metric to get elected, but I do feel we are at a time post-George Floyd, post-civil unrest, starting with Trayvon Martin, that we understand race does play a role in fighting crime and the criminal justice system."Poll PileWI-Sen: Marquette University Law School: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 51, Eric Hovde (R): 45, Phil Anderson (Disrupt the Corruption Party): 2, Thomas Leager (America First Party): 2 (50-49 Harris in two-way, 46-45 Harris with third-party candidates) (June: 52-47 Baldwin)Ad RoundupAZ-Sen: DSCC - anti-Kari Lake (R)FL-Sen: Rick Scott (R-inc)MD-Sen: Larry Hogan (R)MI-Sen: NRSC - anti-Elissa Slotkin (D); One Nation - anti-Slotkin (part of $9.4 million buy); DSCC - anti-Mike Rogers (R)MO-Sen: Lucas Kunce (D)MT-Sen: More Jobs, Less Government - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc)PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc); DSCC - anti-Dave McCormick (R) (here and here); McCormick - anti-CaseyTX-Sen: Colin Allred (D)WI-Sen: DSCC - anti-Eric Hovde (R)AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc) and the NRCC (in English and Spanish)FL-09: Darren Soto (D-inc) (in Spanish)IA-03: Zach Nunn (R-inc)MI-08: Paul Junge (R); Junge - anti-Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)NV-02: Greg Kidd (I)WA-03: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-inc) - anti-Joe Kent (R)WI-03: Derrick Van Orden (R-inc)Campaign Action
