04/13/2025 --dailykos
Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about. You’ll also find data-based updates on past Daily Kos reporting, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.Tariffs crash, Trump burnsAs Daily Kos previously reported, it didn’t take long before President Donald Trump’s approval rating tanked after his return to the White House–and new polling suggests voters are finally rejecting the myth that Republicans, especially Trump, are better stewards of the economy. Two fresh surveys—both taken after Trump’s reckless “Liberation Day,” when he slapped haphazard tariffs on dozens of countries—show his approval rating underwater. Morning Consult polling puts him at 46% approve, 52% disapprove among adults. Navigator Research, polling registered voters, shows 44% approve and 53% disapprove of the president.Both surveys also show Trump’s economic approval nosediving. Navigator found that 55% of registered voters now disapprove of his handling of the economy, with just 42% approving—a net -13, down from -5 in mid-March. Morning Consult similarly found that voters are 3 points more likely to disapprove than approve of Trump’s economic and trade policy. And it’s no mystery why: He managed to tank the stock market in just a few weeks.Navigator also found rising economic anxiety under Trump. Only 36% of registered voters say they feel confident about their personal finances in the coming months, while 62% feel uneasy. The only group showing a flicker of optimism? Republicans—though even there, only 55% feel secure. And confidence is slipping fast. Among Republicans, Navigator found that net personal financial confidence has plunged—from +30 in early February to +32 in mid-March to just +13 now.xDatawrapper ContentThat suggests Trump is even losing ground with his base. And it doesn’t stop there. A growing number of Americans now believe the economy is actively deteriorating. In December 2024, just 37% said so. By April, that number had soared to 59%.Then there’s the political landmine: tariffs. If Trump sees them as a winning issue, the public doesn’t agree. Only 30% of registered voters view tariffs favorably; 58% disapprove. Democrats (88%) and independents (55%) were especially sour, but even typically reliable Republican blocs weren’t sold. Fifty-six percent of non-college-educated voters disapprove of tariffs—just shy of the 62% of college grads who say the same.And any inroads Trump made with voters of color in 2024 may be slipping, too. Navigator found that 64% of Black, 61% of Hispanic, and 67% of AAPI respondents oppose tariffs.For a president who’s built his brand on economic bravado, the numbers don’t lie: Trump’s agenda isn’t just unpopular—it’s blowing up in his face.Booker’s break outAfter his marathon 25-hour floor speech last week, Democratic Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey is enjoying a high favorability rating among Democrats, a new national poll found. That’s welcome news for any member of Congress—especially one widely expected to run for president in 2028.The Economist/YouGov poll, conducted April 5-8, found that 65% of Democrats view Booker favorably, while just 11% do not. That’s a big jump from a 2019 Gallup poll during his last presidential run, which put his favorability at 45% among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.Booker also performed well among people who said they voted for Vice President Kamala Harris last year—a person he might be up against in 2028. Among Harris voters, 72% viewed Booker favorably (just 13% didn’t), as did 62% of self-described liberals.It’s unclear whether this momentum translates into real support for a presidential bid, but it’s a solid start. Remember, a verified voter survey from Echelon Insights in February found only 2% of likely Democratic voters wanted Booker to lead the 2028 ticket (the same percentage who wanted Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman).If Booker wants another shot at the presidency, he’ll need to boost his support not just with Democrats but with the broader electorate. Among all Americans, the Economist/YouGov poll found Booker had a 36% favorable and 29% unfavorable rating. Not bad—Trump, in the same poll, had a 43% favorable and 54% unfavorable—but it shows many voters still don’t know enough about Booker or aren’t sold on him yet.Still, his speech gave Democrats a much-needed boost at a time when voters say the party is struggling to respond to Trump. In those 25 hours, Booker didn’t just talk—he took the fight to Trump. These numbers suggest voters noticed.Musk tanks EV hopesTech billionaire Elon Musk’s presence in the White House isn’t just turning voters off Tesla—they’re increasingly avoiding electric vehicles altogether, new polling suggests. According to a new Gallup poll, the percentage of Americans who either own or would consider owning an EV has dropped sharply—from 59% in March 2023 to just 51% now.To be clear, it’s not certain Musk is entirely to blame. As Gallup notes, waning interest in electric vehicles predates Musk’s rise in Washington, D.C., and his so-called Department of Government Efficiency’s ongoing controversies. In 2024, for instance, the same share of Americans—51%—said they owned or would consider owning an electric vehicle.But the poll also showed a clear across-the-board dip in enthusiasm for electric cars, which tracks with broader polling that suggests Musk has become deeply unpopular—and, so, too, have things associated with him.The timing doesn’t help. Gallup noted that it conducted the poll from March 3-16, right as Tesla became the target of political attacks. Despite Trump’s half-hearted attempts to promote the company, it hasn’t moved the needle. Tesla’s stock has nosedived, and it’s hard not to see the broader EV slump as partially tied to Musk’s baggage. The trend is especially striking among Democrats, the group most likely to buy EVs. While Democrats still lead in interest, that number is slipping—from 82% in 2023 to 71% now.Democrats appear to be shifting toward hybrid vehicles, which run on both gas and electric power. According to the poll, 77% said they either own or would consider owning a hybrid, which is higher than the share for EVs (71%). Republicans, meanwhile, were no more convinced by the president’s odd infomercial to flock toward electric vehicles, the pollster found. The share of Republican adults who say they own or would consider owning an electric vehicle has essentially remained unchanged since 2024, rising only 2 percentage points from 29% to 31%.If this survey offers a snapshot of where voters stand on electric vehicles—with Musk now tied to the White House—it’s not a good sign.Any updates?The Trump administration hasn’t exactly shown much remorse, but it’s responsible for one of the most appalling screw-ups in recent memory: mistakenly deporting a man to a violent Salvadoran prison due to an “administrative error”—then scrambling to find legal loopholes to avoid bringing him back. Most Americans, however, get it: If you mess up, you fix it. A new YouGov poll found that 77% of adults believe the government should work to return someone to the U.S. if they were deported by mistake, or because of an “accident” we should all hope never happens again. In short: Own your failures. Trump could learn a thing or two from the voters.Trump walked back some of his earlier threats, announcing on Wednesday that he plans to reduce tariffs on nearly every country to 10% for the next 90 days—all while raising tariffs on China to 125%. Republicans and Americans alike breathed a sigh of relief. YouGov found 64% of adults approve of the tariff pause, while 15% opposed. The move also earned bipartisan support, with 68% of Republicans and 69% of Democrats expressing their approval.Americans seem to be coming around to the idea that, to use Trump’s parlance,, someone in his administration f’ed up “bigly” when a reporter from The Atlantic was accidentally added to a Signal group chat where officials were discussing wartime plans. According to Quinnipiac University, 61% of voters think someone should be fired over the blunder—though the main culprit, national security adviser Mike Waltz, still has a job. Voters also aren’t thrilled about Cabinet officials using an insecure messaging app for sensitive discussions. About 74% called the use of Signal a “very serious problem.”Vibe checkDespite Trump’s attempt to (sort of) walk back his tariff plans earlier this week, new polling shows the damage is already done—especially with independents.According to Civiqs data, the president’s April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcement marked a clear inflection point in his job approval among independents. Since then, Trump’s disapproval among registered independents has climbed 3 points, from 52% to 56%. Republican support, meanwhile, has barely budged.xCiviqs ResultsThe backlash is sharpest among college-educated independents. As of Friday Trump’s net approval is -18% among independents with a college degree and -28% among those with a postgraduate degree. Even among non-college-educated independents—once a more favorable bloc—his net approval stands at -14%, continuing a steady decline that began in March. Independent men also appear to be souring. In February, they gave Trump a +10% net approval. Now? He’s underwater at -6%.Trump may be insisting everything is fine, but the numbers suggest otherwise. His tariff stunt is backfiring—and voters are noticing.Campaign Action
