Elissa Slotkin

Here are the races to watch as the two parties fight to win the Senate majority. Democrats have little room for losses in the 2024 elections.

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. By Niels Lesniewski, Daniela Altimari and Mary Ellen McIntire Fundraising isn’t everything when it comes to campaigns — but it certainly does not hurt. [...]The post At the Races: Money comin’, money goin’ appeared first on Roll Call.

GOP sources on the ground in Michigan are confident in their chances to win the election despite recent reports of Republicans falling victim to a struggling ground game.

Democrats in key Senate and House races once again posted huge fundraising numbers, vastly outspending their Republican opponents from July through September.

Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) is taking her anti-Trump crusade to the congressional battlefield, endorsing Democrats in a pair of contested House races in a sign that she sees the lower chamber as a potential check on former President Trump if he wins a second term in the White House. On Tuesday, Cheney endorsed John [...]

House Republicans see a path to keeping their majority on Nov. 5 by picking up seats in the Rust Belt that they contend could help offset potential losses on the coast. Why it matters: Political strategists have pointed to clusters of seats in New York and California as the key to which party will have a majority next year, but the National Republican Congressional Committee sees a window in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania to keep control or grow their numbers. Driving the news: The House GOP's campaign arm has been paying for ads in the Michigan districts held by Democratic Reps. Hillary Scholten, Elissa Slotkin, who is running for Senate, and Dan Kildee, who is retiring. The NRCC is also investing in the Pennsylvania districts held by Democrats Susan Wild, Matt Cartwright and Chris Deluzio, as well as Ohio Rep. Emilia Sykes's (D) district. Zoom in: Congressional Leadership Fund, a group with ties to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), similarly has ramped up spending by about $9 million in the past five weeks, according to a person familiar with the matter. CLF added $2.3 million in Lansing, Mich., bringing the total to almost $7 million for the open seat currently held by Slotkin, and $1.8M in Flint, Mich., bringing the total there $4 million in spending for the seat being vacated by Kildee — districts Democrats have said are two of their tightest races.Johnson's PAC also added $3.8M to its initial $5.4 million Philadelphia reserve for Wild's seat and is spending an additional $1.1 million in Toledo, Ohio, bringing their total to over $4 million in an attempt to unseat Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur.What they're saying: "Holding the line on the coasts is how Republicans keep the House majority; Winning races in the Rust Belt is how Republicans expand the majority," one GOP operative said. The operative said former President Trump's appeal in the region could be boon for Republican House candidates there. CLF Spokeswoman Courtney Parella said in a statement that the group was focused on highlighting Democrats' failures "on key issues such as illegal immigration, fentanyl trafficking, and the rising cost of living," adding that they were "confident that voters will turn away from Democrats' extremism."The other side: Democrats dismissed the GOP's bullishness in the region, arguing their spending strategy is flawed and taking out Democratic incumbents will be a heavy lift. Operatives noted Democrats have been outspending in a number of seats including Skyes.' "Republicans struck out recruiting candidates in Ohio, have massive fundraising disadvantages in Pennsylvania, and are running far-right extremists across the Heartland who would ban abortion nationwide," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Aidan Johnson told Axios."This is a last ditch effort to save face, and nobody is buying it."Go deeper: Jeffries and Johnson plow cash into House "squinter" races

With less than four weeks until Election Day, new polls in three crucial battleground states indicate a coin toss race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump.

U.S. Senate candidates Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., and former GOP Congressman Mike Rogers faced off at a debate in Grand Rapids on Tuesday, clashing on several issues.

Human Rights Campaign (HRC) and its Equality Votes political action committee are launching a multimillion-dollar digital ad blitz aimed at reaching "equality voters" for the Harris-Walz ticket in key battleground states, the group announced Wednesday. “This election is going to come down to the smallest of margins, but the difference between an equality champion like [...]

Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers clashed over who would best represent Michigan during the first debate of their Senate race.

The warning signs are flashing for Democratic candidates in three of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's most important states for playing defense.Why it matters: The Rust Belt toss-ups of Michigan, Ohio and — as of Tuesday — Wisconsin could make the difference between a tiny GOP Senate majority next year or their biggest advantage since 2016.Schumer has strong incumbents in Wisconsin and Ohio. Both benefited from last running in 2018 when Donald Trump's name was off the ballot, but his presidency drove Democratic turnout.One of Schumer's earlier toss-ups — Montana — is trending the wrong way. Cook moved it last month to "lean Republican."🦡 1) Wisconsin: We told you last week that Sen. Tammy Baldwin's (D) re-election fight was setting off alarms among Wisconsin Dems.On Tuesday, Cook tightened her race against wealthy GOP businessman Eric Hovde from "lean Dem" to "toss-up." Baldwin cleaned house in 2018, winning by 10 percentage points.🔥 2) Ohio: Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown is a red state survivor, but his once-sizable lead over Bernie Moreno has been shrinking.NRSC internal polling showed them deadlocked at 46%, the Hill reported today. Back in 2018, Brown won by seven percentage points.⏰ 3) Michigan: Democratic nominee Rep. Elissa Slotkin has sounded the alarm as polling shows former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) closing in.Super PAC cash is flying into Michigan, as Axios reported. That includes $22.5 million from the GOP leader Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund.Zoom out: The good news largely stops there for Republicans, who came into the cycle with a historically favorable Senate map. The map's much better for Schumer's Democrats in 2026.The GOP has begun to triage: The NRSC has less than $1 million in ad reservations between both Arizona and Nevada — once considered pickup opportunities — from now until Election Day.What they're saying: NRSC Communications Director Mike Berg said the party has seen "positive movement across the board" after being "outspent badly over the summer."DSCC Communications Director David Bergstein said the GOP's "flawed candidates are hurting their prospects across the entire Senate map — and while the NRSC is slashing their advertising the DSCC is going on offense."The bottom line: Democrats are relying on good news in long-shot races, including ratings changes in their favor in Texas and Nebraska.

One month out from Election Day, the race for the White House and control of Congress is as close as it gets

Democrats have another emerging concern in their bid to hold on to a Senate majority next month. Axios reported Friday that the race between incumbent Wisconsin Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin [...]The post Democrats in Full Panic Mode, Terrified as Republican in Key Senate Race Catches Them Off Guard: Report appeared first on The Western Journal.

After a tumultuous and unproductive session of Congress, nearly 50 House members have decided either to not seek reelection or to run for a higher office.

WASHINGTON — After a tumultuous and unproductive session of Congress, nearly 50 House members decided either to not seek reelection or to run for a higher office this year, leaving Democratic vacancies in several tight races that could tilt control of the House to either party. Both Republicans and Democrats have had their fair share [...]The post Departures in House Create Crucial Republican Targets in the Fight for Majority Control appeared first on GV Wire.

Vice President Kamala Harris and her surrogates must have some special insight into psychological manipulation. Otherwise, one struggles to account for the strange reports and behavior coming out of the [...]The post Tim Walz Is Terrified Ahead of Debate with JD Vance, Campaign Insiders Say appeared first on The Western Journal.

'They're not feeling the groove with Trump right now'

A burst of $8 million in new super PAC ad spending is lighting up America's quietest toss-up Senate race, Axios has exclusively learned.Why it matters: Ohio and Montana have gotten the attention this year, but Michigan's Senate race is one of only two toss-ups left with Ohio in the Cook Political Report ratings. Montana's Senate race is now rated lean Republican.Michigan's open seat ups the difficulty: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) won't benefit from a strong incumbent like Jon Tester in Montana or Sherrod Brown in Ohio.💰 Scoop: Another $8 million in statewide ads is coming from the super PAC Great Lakes Conservative Fund, which supports Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers, Axios has exclusively learned. The buy doubles the super PAC's investment so far this year.Add that to the $22.5 million coming from the Senate Leadership Fund, a PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), as the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday. SLF had not previously spent in Michigan.Zoom in: The Democratic Senate campaign arm has spent nearly $22 million in the state this year.😰 Axios reported in Sunday's Sneak Peek that Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), the Democratic candidate in the race, told donors last week that Vice President Kamala Harris is "underwater" in the state.Slotkin has an average polling lead of 4.6% in the Senate race, according to polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.Republican internal polling shows the candidates are statistically tied, according to a source familiar with the matter.The big picture: Republicans will take the Senate majority if the GOP can win a single race among Montana, Ohio or Michigan — or pull off a surprise in Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Maryland.Democrats have far fewer options, chasing long-shots in Texas and Florida to make up any losses in the races listed above. In Nebraska, they're cheering on an independent challenger to GOP incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer."We're keeping an eye on Texas and in Florida, and maybe half an eye on Nebraska," SLF president Steven Law told the Journal.

Michigan Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin recently warned donors that Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign in Michigan is "underwater," according to a report.

GOP efforts to recruit and support female candidates in primaries stalled this year, while Democratic women could expand their ranks after a strong showing.

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. By Daniela Altimari, Mary Ellen McIntire and Niels Lesniewski A decision by national Democrats to fund a late, multimillion-dollar ad blitz in Texas and [...]The post At the Races: Expanding states of play appeared first on Roll Call.

Democrats have a growing edge nationwide—but a bigger advantage in closely watched Senate races.

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. The race for the White House may not run through New York, but Donald Trump was there Wednesday night anyway, rallying on Long Island, [...]The post At the Races: Making an Empire statement appeared first on Roll Call.

Vice President Harris and former President Trump are locked in tight contests in seven battleground states as the race for the White House enters the home stretch, according to new polling released Tuesday. The survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill found Trump edging out Harris in Arizona (49 percent to 48 percent); Georgia [...]

The House of Representatives passed a bill aimed at deporting illegal immigrants convicted of sex crimes and deeming them inadmissible to the United States.

Republican Mike Rogers sought to dispel claims made by his Democrat opponent about his abortion stance in a new campaign ad on Wednesday.

Republican Mike Rogers sought to dispel claims made by his Democrat opponent about his abortion stance in a new campaign ad on Wednesday.

'I don’t love the idea'

Democrats have a razor-thin 51-49 majority Democrats risk losing the Senate this year, as incumbents in the Montana and Ohio Senate races face an uphill climb—and the party fights for Arizona and Pennsylvania.

The battle for the Senate is set to hit a crescendo in the coming weeks as campaigns reach another gear and voters increasingly tune in after Labor Day. Republicans have long been the favorite to win back the upper chamber, but Vice President Harris replacing President Biden has further scrambled the playing field for both [...]

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is vowing to force health insurance companies or the federal government to pay for IVF treatments, a proposal at odds with the actions of much of his own party. It reveals the former president’s realization...

Former President Donald Trump is railing against Vice President Kamala Harris during an event at a steel plant in Michigan. Trump blamed Harris and President Joe Biden for inflation, accusing them of presiding over “an economic reign of terror. Trump...

His visit Thursday to Michigan will be his third in the past seven days.

The fourth and final night of the Democratic National Convention is underway, culminating with Vice President Kamala Harris accepting her party’s nomination for president

Kamala Harris and the Democrats are relying on vibes rather than specific policies to win over voters ahead oft he 2024 election against Donald Trump.

Allred, who's running for Senate against incumbent Ted Cruz, is set to speak to express his support for Harris.

A handful of vulnerable Democratic senators who are skipping this week’s convention, as they try to project a degree of independence from their party.

As delegates are excited to hear from VP Harris on Thursday, there is a lengthy list of speakers to take the stage on Thursday.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee targeted a large slate of vulnerable Democrats vying for Senate seats in a new round of ads.

Nancy Pelosi opened her convention speech with a sense of gratitude for President Joe Biden, even after her doubts about his campaign fed into the pressures that led him to end his reelection effort. Then the former House speaker added,...

Strategists feel confident that GOP voters will ultimately fall in line behind Republican Senate candidates as the 2024 election approaches.

A crypto group's move to spend millions of dollars backing Democrats in key Senate races has upset Republicans who have sought to forge ties with the industry.

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded ContentLeading Off● Primary Night: We've entered the homestretch of the 2024 primary season, but as Jeff Singer details in our election night preview, there's still plenty to watch Tuesday in Wisconsin and Minnesota.Badger State Democrats have a competitive battle to decide who will take on freshman Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden in an ancestrally blue southwestern Wisconsin seat that veered hard to the right after Donald Trump took over the GOP. This area, though, may not be lost to the Democrats. Van Orden only beat state Sen. Brad Pfaff 52-48 in 2022 after national Democrats canceled their ad reservations, while progressive Janet Protasiewicz decisively carried it months later in the officially nonpartisan state Supreme Court race.Van Orden is one of the last vulnerable House members anywhere in the nation who doesn't yet know the identity of his general election opponent. We'll all find out soon, though, if he'll be going up against businesswoman Rebecca Cooke, who took second to Pfaff in the last primary, or state Rep. Katrina Shankland. House Majority PAC has reserved millions in ad time to support whichever Democrat wins on Tuesday.There's more to see in the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. One Wisconsin Republican is about to find out if voters will nominate him after Trump himself told him to drop out, while the state GOP is hoping voters will approve two state constitutional amendments that would strip Democratic Gov. Tony Evers of key powers.Over in Minnesota, we're going to find out if Republicans are willing to gift the thumbs up to a far-right conspiracy theorist who, among other things, shared a map of public drinking fountains by writing, "Crime in Minneapolis...Out of control." You can find more on these races, and more, in Singer's preview.We'll be liveblogging the results at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting when the first polls close in the Midwest at 9 PM ET/8 PM local time. Join us for our complete coverage!Senate● OH-Sen: The National Republican Senatorial Committee has canceled its entire $700,000 TV reservation for Ohio's Senate race, reports AdImpact, but an unnamed source soon relayed to Politico's Ally Mutnick that it would instead run so-called hybrid ads with Republican nominee Bernie Moreno's campaign.This arrangement, as we explained when Democrats ran similar ads in an Oregon primary earlier this year, allows the NRSC and Moreno to share the cost of advertising and take advantage of federal rules requiring stations to charge lower rates to candidates rather than the higher rates third-party groups face.These hybrid spots, though, are subject to more stringent content requirements than commercials from candidates or outside groups. Most notably, the ads are required to reference a political party writ large, as opposed to just a single candidate.This rule, however, won't be much of an obstacle in a red state like Ohio: With the GOP poised to do well at the top of the ticket, a message broadly attacking the Democratic Party will likely be popular. Conversely, don't expect Democrats to pursue a similar strategy, because Sen. Sherrod Brown is trying to win over voters who are prepared to back Republicans in other races, including Donald Trump for president.The NRSC also utilized hybrid ads last cycle, though it didn't work out well. Rick Scott, the committee's chair, insisted that hybrid ads would allow the party to get more bang for its buck, but critics argued it would unnecessarily restrict the kind of messages it could run. In the end, the Senate Republican caucus wound up shrinking a seat thanks to the GOP's loss in Pennsylvania.But the NRSC's new chair, Steve Daines, seems convinced that this particular element of Scott's strategy wasn't to blame and has forged ahead with a new onslaught of hybrid ads. One unnamed operative, however, seemed to acknowledge the limitations of this approach, telling Reese Gorman of NOTUS that the committee "is relying on [the Senate Leadership Fund] and other outside groups to carry the super PAC message in Ohio and Montana."Governors● NJ-Gov: Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill recently confirmed her long-reported interest in running to succeed termed-out Gov. Phil Murphy by telling Axios, "I'm strongly considering running for governor in 2025. I'd make that decision after Election Day."Fellow Rep. Josh Gottheimer is also publicly mulling entering next year's Democratic primary, though not everyone thinks either House member still needs to decide on anything. Politico's Matt Friedman wrote in June that both Gottheimer and Sherrill will each announce they're in after they're reelected in November even though they're already "all-but-running."The Democratic field to succeed Murphy already includes the mayors of New Jersey's two largest cities, Ras Baraka of Newark and Steven Fulop of Jersey City. The primary also features former state Senate President Steve Sweeney and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, who recently finished his stint as mayor of Montclair.House● NH-02: Former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern has earned the endorsement of SEA/SEIU Local 1984, an influential labor group that represents state employees, ahead of the Sept. 10 Democratic primary for the 2nd District.● NJ-09: Democratic Rep. Bill Pascrell was "rushed back to the hospital" on Sunday evening less than a week after he was discharged from a rehabilitation facility, the New Jersey Globe was first to report. The 87-year-old congressman's team did not initially provide information about his condition.The Globe also relays that local Democrats are now working to fill vacant seats on the local county committees in case they're needed to pick a new nominee should Pascrell end his reelection campaign. The story notes that Aug. 27 is the deadline for Pascrell to drop out in time for him to be replaced on the ballot, though judges have given parties extra time in the past. New Jersey's 9th District, which is based in North Jersey, favored Joe Biden 59-40 in 2020.● OH-13: The NRCC has released an internal survey from Cygnal that shows freshman Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes with a small 44-40 advantage over Republican Kevin Coughlin in the race for Ohio's 13th District, a contest where we hadn't previously seen any polling.The memo for this poll, which was first publicized by the National Journal's James Downs, did not include 2024 presidential numbers. President Joe Biden four years ago scored a small 51-48 win in this constituency, which includes the Akron and Canton areas.● TX-18: Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner has released a list of endorsements from 30 of the 88 precinct chairs in the Harris County Democratic Party who will decide Tuesday who will replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee on the general election ballot. The eventual nominee will have no trouble in this dark blue seat, which includes parts of central and northern Houston.Turner is one of several notable names who are competing to succeed Jackson Lee in the next Congress. The roster includes two notable candidates who unsuccessfully challenged Jackson Lee for renomination: state Rep. Jarvis Johnson, who lost in 2010, and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, who failed to beat the incumbent earlier this year. The field also features state Rep. Christina Morales, Houston City Council member Letitia Plummer, and Corisha Rogers, who is a local party official.Obituaries● Steve Symms: Idaho Republican Steve Symms, an ardent conservative who won his Senate seat in 1980 by narrowly unseating the state's last Democratic senator, Frank Church, died Friday at the age of 86. The Idaho Statesman's Ian Max Stevenson has more on Symms' volatile career, including his narrow 1986 reelection win and his role spreading a damaging smear against Democrats in the 1988 presidential campaign, in his obituary.Poll PileMI-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Elissa Slotkin (D): 46, Mike Rogers (R): 43 (50-46 Harris in two-way, 48-43 Harris with third-party candidates)MI-Sen: Bullfinch Group for The Independent Center: Slotkin (D): 48, Rogers (R): 38 (48-43 Harris in two-way, 46-40 Harris with third-party candidates)PA-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Bob Casey (D-inc): 51, Dave McCormick (R): 37 (50-46 Harris in two-way, 46-44 Harris with third-party candidates) (July: 50-42 Casey)PA-Sen: Bullfinch Group for The Independent Center: Casey (D-inc): 51, McCormick (R): 39 (49-45 Harris in two-way, 45-41 Harris with third-party candidates)WI-Sen: Siena College for the New York Times: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 51, Eric Hovde (R): 44 (50-46 Harris in two-way, 49-43 Harris with third-party candidates) (May: 49-42 Baldwin) WI-Sen: Bullfinch Group for The Independent Center: Baldwin (D-inc): 50, Hovde (R): 41 (51-42 Harris in two-way, 49-40 Harris with third-party candidates) NC-Gov: YouGov Blue (D) for Carolina Forward: Josh Stein (D): 46, Mark Robinson (R): 36 (46-46 presidential tie with third-party candidates) NC-AG: YouGov Blue (D) for Carolina Forward: Jeff Jackson (D): 42, Dan Bishop (R): 40 NC Supreme Court: YouGov Blue (D) for Carolina Forward: Allison Riggs (D-inc): 42, Jefferson Griffin (R): 41Ad PileFL-Sen: Stanley Campbell (D)NV-Sen: Sam Brown (R); Brown and the NRSCPA-Sen: Dave McCormick (R) - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc)DE-Gov: Matt Meyer (D)FL-01: Matt Gaetz (R-inc)MI-08: Kristen McDonald Rivet (D) - anti-Paul Junge (R)MT-01: Monica Tranel (D) - anti-Ryan Zinke (R-inc)NH-01: Russell Prescott (R)PA-01: Ashley Ehasz (D) - anti-Brian Fitzpatrick (R-inc)Campaign Action

Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, and former Representative Mike Rogers, a Republican, disclosed that they were targeted on Thursday and Friday.

Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers’s campaign has sent cease-and-desist letters to more than two dozen local television stations over an ad released by his opponent that it says is false and misleading. The letter from two legal counsels for the Rogers campaign said the ads sponsored by the campaign for Rep. Elissa Slotkin, the...