08/06/2024 --dailykos
Welcome to the Daily Kos Elections Live Digest, your liveblog of all of today's campaign news. You can find our collection of public data at dailykosdata.com.Please note: The Live Digest is a Democratic presidential primary-free space. It’s also a place to discuss elections, not policy.Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot! New episodes every Thursday morning. Embedded Content UPDATE: Tuesday, Aug 6, 2024 · 10:26:12 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf • TN-05: NewsChanel 5's Phil Williams reports that the FBI executed a search warrant on Republican Rep. Andy Ogles last week, though neither the FBI nor Ogles' attorney would confirm or deny the search and what it involved. Williams, whose previous reporting revealed how Ogles seemingly had fabricated large parts of his life story and submitted fraudulent campaign finance reports, relays that the search may have been related to the latter issue and involved the congressman's electronic devices.Williams notes that the Department of Justice generally avoids openly investigating candidates within 60 days of Election Day so as not to influence the results, and the search happened the very next day after Ogles won Thursday's primary by 57-43 over Metro Nashville Councilmember Courtney Johnston.Back in May, Ogles drew unwelcome attention after he dramatically amended his 2022 campaign finance reports to say he loaned his effort $20,000, rather than the $320,000 he'd previously claimed. Williams previously pointed out that the congressman's personal financial disclosures showed he lacked the wealth to make a loan of that size. (On those forms, Ogles did not even list any bank accounts.)Those inflated figures allowed Ogles to claim he had considerably more money available three weeks before the primary than the paltry $2,000 he now says he had in the bank, and that exaggerated war chest may have convinced outside group allies like the Club for Growth that he was in stronger shape than he was. While Ogles would likely still be favored to win this fall in a heavily gerrymandered district that backed Trump 55-43 in 2020, it remains to be seen how much legal jeopardy he may be in. UPDATE: Tuesday, Aug 6, 2024 · 9:05:48 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf • DE-Gov: A group called Change Can't Wait PAC has launched a new TV ad ahead of the Sept. 10 Democratic primary that praises New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer's healthcare plan and his support for abortion rights. While federal law prevents this type of organization from running ads directly telling viewers to vote for or against a candidate, Delaware Spotlight's Karl Baker reports that some of Meyer's supporters are behind it.• CA-16: Assemblyman Evan Low has publicized a Tulchin Research survey that finds former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo, a fellow Democrat, leading him just 30-29 with a 41% plurality of voters undecided in this dark blue open seat. Last month, Liccardo's campaign shared a late-June internal from Lake Research Partners that showed him ahead 39-28, and no other polls have recently surfaced here.• FL-13: EMILYs List has endorsed former Pinellas County transportation official Whitney Fox with just two weeks left until the Aug. 20 primary for the Democratic nomination to take on freshman Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna. This seat in the St. Petersburg area, which Republicans gerrymandered following the 2020 census, favored Donald Trump by a 53-46 margin four years ago.• MN-02: Despite saying last month that he was suspending his House campaign to serve as an adviser to Donald Trump's campaign, attorney Tayler Rahm has still been sending campaign mailers. The Star Tribune's Sydney Kashiwagi reports that Rahm appears to be engaged in a "shadow primary" campaign against former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab, who has the support of Donald Trump and House GOP leadership in the Aug. 13 GOP primary.While Rahm himself again declared last week that he had suspended his effort, 2nd District GOP chair Joe Ditto told Kashiwagi he believed that Rahm still could pull off an upset next week. "It sounds like if [Rahm’s] victorious in the primary, he will unsuspend his campaign and run against Angie in the general," said Ditto. • NV-02: Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen has endorsed wealthy investor Greg Kidd, a self-funding independent who is challenging Republican Rep. Mark Amodei in a race where Democrats did not field a candidate. Trump won this northern Nevada district 54-43, and while Democrats have not seriously contested it since Amodei's initial landslide in a 2011 special election, Kidd's lack of a party label could give him more of an opening.• TX-18: Former Houston Councilmember Dwight Boykins has ended his campaign for the Democratic nomination to replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee after her children endorsed former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, with Boykins saying, "I respect their decision." Local party precinct chairs are set to meet on Aug. 13 to choose a replacement nominee for November's ballot in this dark blue seat. UPDATE: Tuesday, Aug 6, 2024 · 8:24:55 PM +00:00 · Stephen Wolf Poll Pile:AZ-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Ruben Gallego (D): 42, Kari Lake (R): 36 (44-43 Harris with third-party candidates)NM-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 40, Nella Domenici (R): 34 (44-37 Harris with third-party candidates)NV-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 41, Sam Brown (R): 38 (40-40 presidential tie with third-party candidates) (July: 45-40 Rosen)PA-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Bob Casey (D-inc): 45, Dave McCormick (R): 40 (46-44 Trump with third-party candidates) (July: 46-39 Casey)NC-Gov: Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph: Josh Stein (D): 43, Mark Robinson (R): 38 (44-41 Trump with third-party candidates) (July: 38-34 Stein)Ad Roundup:MT-Sen: Tim Sheehy (R); Last Best Place - anti-SheehyOH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc)PA-Sen: Dave McCormick (R) - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc); One Nation - anti-CaseyNH-Gov: Kelly Ayotte (R)CO-08: House Majority Forward - pro-Yadira Caraveo (D-inc) (in English and Spanish)IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D) - anti-Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-inc)ME-02: House Majority Forward - pro-Jared Golden (D-inc)NY-04: House Majority Forward - anti-Anthony D’Esposito (R-inc)NY-18: Pat Ryan (D-inc) - anti-Alison Esposito (R)WI-08: Roger Roth (R) UPDATE: Tuesday, Aug 6, 2024 · 4:30:38 PM +00:00 · Jeff Singer • MN-Gov: Vice President Kamala Harris tapped Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate on Tuesday, a decision that could usher in a new era of leadership in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan would become Minnesota's new chief executive should the Harris-Walz ticket prevail in November, an ascension that would make her the first woman to lead the state. Flanagan, a member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe, would also be the first Native American woman to serve as governor of any state. No matter what, though, this office will next be on the ballot in 2026 for a full four-year term.Walz, writes KARE 11's Jeremiah Jacobsen, would be the state's first governor to resign since 1976, when Sen. Walter Mondale's election as Jimmy Carter's vice president set off a volatile chain of events back home that proved disastrous for Democrats.Following Mondale's departure for Washington, Democratic Gov. Wendell Anderson stepped down from his post and arranged for his lieutenant governor, Rudy Perpich, to appoint him to Mondale's Senate seat. These insider dealings, however, backfired with voters, leading to the "Minnesota massacre" of 1978: Republican Rudy Boschwitz trounced Anderson in the race for Senate while Republican Al Quie unseated Perpich as governor.Walz's succession would be a far simpler affair, but there's also the matter of who would replace Flanagan in her current role. State constitutional law expert Quinn Yeargain explains in Guaranteed Republics that the next person in line to become lieutenant governor is the president of the state Senate, a post that's held by Democrat Bobby Joe Champion. Should Champion succeed Flanagan, he, too, would make history, as the first Black person to serve as Minnesota's lieutenant governor.There's a potential hitch, though. The 67-member Senate is currently tied because Democratic state Sen. Kelly Morrison, who is the favorite to replace retiring Rep. Dean Phillips in Congress, resigned in July so that a special election could be held simultaneously with the November general election. The rest of the Senate, however, isn't up for election again until 2026, so this one race will determine who controls the upper chamber next year.Fortunately for Democrats, Morrison's 45th District, which is based in the Minneapolis suburbs, will be tough for the GOP to flip, especially now that Walz is on the national ticket. This constituency supported Joe Biden by a 57-41 margin in 2020, according to VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App, while the Walz-Flanagan team scored an identical win two years later. Three Democrats are competing in the Aug. 13 primary; the winner will face Republican Kathleen Fowke, who lost to Morrison 56-44 in 2022.But even if Republicans were to pull off an upset in this special election at the same time Harris and Walz prevail in the Electoral College, Yeargain writes that it's possible that Walz could time his resignation to ensure that Champion still becomes lieutenant governor.That would be a far better outcome for Democrats than the last time the number two slot became vacant. When then-Gov. Mark Dayton selected Lt. Gov Tina Smith to fill Al Franken's Senate seat after he resigned in early 2018, the GOP had control of the state Senate. As a result, Republican Michelle Fischbach was elevated to the lieutenant governorship and served for a year before waging a successful bid for Congress in 2020.Looking ahead, because Minnesota does not have term limits, whoever is governor—whether that's Walz or Flanagan—will be able to run in 2026. Voters, however, have never awarded an incumbent three consecutive terms. The last to try was Perpich, who staged a successful comeback in 1982 and won two full terms. But when he sought a third straight in 1990, he lost a close and chaotic battle to Republican Arne Carlson.Republican Tim Pawlenty tried to win a third non-consecutive term in 2018, nearly a decade after retiring to prepare for what would be a doomed presidential campaign. But primary voters passed him over in favor of Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson, who went on to badly lose the general election to none other than Walz.
