Jon Tester

Democratic Sens. Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown, the most vulnerable 2024 incumbents in the Senate, are among the senators targeted by the $10 million AFP Action ad blitz.

'More likely to Defeat Lazy Jon'

Republican challenger Tim Sheehy is leading Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester by 6 points, 51 percent support to 45 percent, among likely voters in Montana, according to a new poll commissioned by AARP. The survey of 1,064 voters in the Republican-leaning state shows that Sheehy is building a solid lead, thanks in part to strong [...]

Republican challenger Tim Sheehy is leading Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester by six points, 51 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters in Montana, according to a new poll commissioned by AARP. The survey of 1,064 voters in the Republican-leaning state shows that Sheehy is building a solid lead, thanks in part to strong support [...]

A new poll in a key Senate battle in Montana that may decide if the GOP wins back the chamber's majority indicates Republican challenger Tim Sheehy with the edge over the Democratic Sen. Jon Tester

Montana Republican Tim Sheehy leads Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in one of the most critical races of the 2024 election, according to new AARP polling.Why it matters: Whichever party wins Montana is likely to control the Senate in 2025, as most signs suggest at this point.With West Virginia all but certain to flip Republican, Democrats have to win the eight other competitive seats to keep the Senate at a 50-50 margin — and hope to have a VP Tim Walz as tie-breaker.Polling is tight in several other battleground states, including Pennsylvania and Ohio, but Montana appears to be the most perilous for Democrats.Driving the news: New polling by AARP shows Sheehy up 49% to Tester's 41% when the full ballot with third-party candidates is included — and 51% to 45% in a head-to-head race. It's a bright spot for the GOP, which has been hit hard by Vice President Kamala Harris moving to the top of the Democratic ticket.Republican strategists tell Axios they are bullish about their chances of flipping the Montana seat."Even in the 2020 Senate race, which Steve [Daines] won by double digits, we never saw numbers as strong as we are seeing now from Tim Sheehy," NRSC executive director Jason Thielman told Axios.Zoom in: Protecting the Tester seat is the Democratic Party's top priority in the Senate. Democrats have poured $128 million into Montana Senate race advertising and ad reservations so far this cycle, compared to $109 million from Republicans, according to AdImpact data. Democrats for years have had a substantial fundraising advantage over Republicans.Between the lines: Tester is a unique candidate — a Democrat who has managed to win in an otherwise deeply-red state for three elections in a row.The race is right around the margin of error — the kind of tight race Tester has won before.But this is the first time he has had to campaign with former President Trump on the ballot. Trump won Montana by 16 percentage points in 2020 and 21 points in 2016.Methodology: The AARP poll surveyed 1,064 likely voters in Montana, with a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters and an oversample of 464 voters over the age of 50. The margin of error for the representative sample is ± 4 percentage points.

“Transparency” implies openness: The willingness to face people in person, answering questions and explaining decisions. But some politicians simply hide behind paid mouthpieces.

The party’s path to 50 is narrow.

About 50,000 veterans fall into regulatory black hole, where one set of benefits they earned is offset by another.

'We will defend the right to mine Bitcoin'

By The Associated Press Vice President Kamala Harris accepted her party’s nomination and offered her policy agenda on the fourth and final night of the Democratic National Convention on Thursday. Now, a stark reality exists as activists, operatives and party leaders begin leaving Chicago: The real test for Harris has only just begun. Meanwhile, on [...]

In an effort to recast himself as a champion of federal public lands, Tim Sheehy turned to two men who stand to do more harm than good.

Even Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of Trump’s top allies in the Senate, is urging the former president to tone down his “showman” streak at rallies.

Montana is Democrats' toughest Senate seat to keep blue in 2024, Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) said Tuesday during an Axios House event on the sidelines of the Democratic National Convention. Why it matters: Whether Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) successfully defends his seat in a state that former President Trump twice won by double digits could be pivotal in Democrats' bid to retain their majority. Peters, who runs Senate Democrats' campaign arm, told Axios' Hans Nichols that Montana is "clearly" the toughest race in November.He also pointed to Ohio — where Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking re-election — as another one of the party's most difficult seats to defend. Important to remember: Tester is not attending the DNC this week. Instead, he's back home in Montana campaigning.The big picture: Tester "knows how to win" in the state and is a "central casting character for Montana," Peters said. Over $205 million has been spent on the Montana Senate race already this cycle, making it one of the three most expensive races on the map.Peters pointed out that neither Montana nor Ohio is a presidential battleground state, meaning Vice President Harris will not be campaigning in either before November.Between the lines: Tester will have to outrun Harris in Montana by a strong margin if he has any chance of winning — an outcome Peters said was possible.Peters pointed out that Montana's relatively small population of just over 1 million people benefits Tester's retail politics skills.

Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisc.) will speak on Thursday night at the DNC, a source familiar with the plans told Axios. More Senate Democratic candidates are expected to speak, multiple sources said.Why it matters: Even if a breakout performance isn't in the cards, look for Democratic candidates to do whatever they can to get a piece of the Harris-Walz momentum, sources tell us.An electric convention speech can supercharge a Senate candidate's national profile, like it did for Illinois Senate nominee Barack Obama at the 2004 DNC.For non-incumbents, speaking slots give them the chance to be alongside powerhouses like Obama and former President Clinton. The Harris-Walz campaign, meanwhile, is staring at tough odds for keeping the Senate and wants to do whatever it can to help.Zoom in: The party needs non-incumbent nominees like Elissa Slotkin (Michigan), Ruben Gallego (Arizona) and Colin Allred (Texas) to win in November if it has any shot of keeping its Senate majority.Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisc.) and Bob Casey (D-Pa.) will also be in Chicago. The exact lineup of speakers is still being confirmed, multiple sources told Axios. Vice President Kamala Harris will accept the Democratic presidential nomination on Thursday.Republican Senate candidates were given similar opportunities at the GOP convention last month.The intrigue: Some vulnerable Democratic candidates have decided to skip out on the trip to Chicago, including Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.).The bottom line: Momentum has shifted toward the Harris campaign in a number of swing states where there are also critical Senate contests.Before the Biden-Harris swap, Democratic campaigns privately worried that they would have to significantly outperform the Biden campaign in battleground states to win. Now, there is optimism that the top of the ticket might actually be helpful in November.Go deeper: Biden's handoff to Harris set for DNC in Chicago

Tim Sheehy, the Republican seeking to unseat Montana Democratic Senator Jon Tester, is a business executive born and raised out of state. That same description applies to Troy Downing, a Republican running for one of Montana’s two Congressional seats. Same...

The Inflation Reduction Act required the federal government to negotiate with drug manufacturers.

By The Associated Press The Democratic National Convention heads into its second day Tuesday. Former President Barack Obama, Michelle Obama and second gentleman Doug Emhoff will speak at the DNC, a day after the unofficial farewell for President Joe Biden, who served eight years as Obama’s vice president. Biden won’t be in the hall to [...]

The three most vulnerable Democratic incumbent senators are reportedly skipping the party's convention next week.

What once looked like a brutal map for Senate Democrats now appears less so, but the party is still facing an uphill climb to stop a Republican takeover.

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.Have you seen our big, big news? Daily Kos Elections is becoming The Downballot! We’re a new, independent site, but our mission remains unchanged: shining a spotlight on the thousands of elections below the presidency—races that all too often get overlooked.You can read all about this announcement right here, and we’ve also prepared an FAQ. But if you have any questions, please fire away. Our operations are 100% reader-supported, so we hope you’ll subscribe today! Leading Off● FL State Senate: Next Tuesday's Republican primary for a dark red seat in the Florida state Senate is now one of the most expensive nomination contests for any office in the entire nation, as well as a proxy fight between Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis. Longtime state Democratic strategist Steve Schale tweeted Tuesday that more than $13 million has been spent on TV ads for the 7th District, which is more than all but three U.S. House primaries this year.Three candidates are facing off in this pricey battle to replace their fellow Republican, termed-out state Sen. Travis Hutson, in the 7th District in Florida’s northeast. State Rep. Tom Leek, who chairs the lower chamber's influential Appropriations Committee, sports endorsements from Hutson, DeSantis, U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, and other prominent state and local Republicans. There's long been talk that, if Leek wins a promotion to the upper chamber, he could eventually serve as Senate president. Leek's only primary opponent until two months ago was Gerry James, a former professional wrestler and ordained minister who lost to Hutson 56-44 in 2022 and struggled to match Leek in fundraising. Leek, though, spent weeks on the receiving end of attack ads from a group called The Truth Matters PAC before the third and final candidate, former St. Johns County Sheriff David Shoar, entered the race in June.Shoar, who served as the top lawman in the St. Augustine area from 2005 until his retirement in 2021, quickly began airing ads arguing that the race was a choice between a Trump-aligned Republican and Leek, whom he portrayed as insufficiently conservative. Leek argued in turn that Shoar was tricking voters by implying he had Trump's backing."He is not endorsed by President Trump," the representative told News4JAX in July. "That’s the deception that they’re putting out there to put out their candidate that will do whatever they want."Leek lost that line of argument earlier this month, however, when Trump endorsed Shoar. While Trump's Truth Social post did not mention either of his opponents, the Daytona Beach News-Journal's Mark Harper noted that Leek had endorsed DeSantis' doomed presidential bid the previous year.The two frontrunners and their respective allies have continued to spend millions against one another while largely ignoring James. Leek has in his corner the state branch of Americans for Prosperity, which has long been a key part of the Koch political network, as well as the Florida Chamber of Commerce.Shoar, meanwhile, has benefited from heavy spending from The Truth Matters PAC. Leek highlighted that this outfit is being funded by trial lawyers, a group he's often feuded with while in office. One of Leek's antagonists is John Morgan, the founder of the personal injury firm Morgan & Morgan and the face of this year's amendment campaign to legalize recreational marijuana in Florida. But the man who calls himself "Pot Daddy" is no fan of Leek, and not only because the state representative opposes Amendment 3.Leek, who is the top lawyer at an insurance agency, intensified the already public feud in May when his campaign accused Morgan of financing the attacks against him. Morgan responded by tweeting, "Rep. Tom Leek AKA Tom Leech has begun to attack me as he gears up for a Senate run. I don’t know why because I didn’t give a shit about his race. But now I do and he has awakened a sleeping dog."Morgan has spent the ensuing months making good on that threat, and he currently has a video pinned to his X page of him accusing Leek of passing a 2022 bill that now requires Floridians to "give your lawyer a piece of the money to fix your house, which means you won't have enough money to fix your house."Morgan went on to challenge Leek to a debate concerning homeowners insurance before adding, "You don't have the balls. Your balls—little BB balls—are on the desk of Charlie Lydecker, your employer at the insurance company." Leek's team quickly dismissed any talk that he'd accept 's challenge and highlighted his antagonist's contributions to Democrats. James, for his part, does not have well-heeled backers in his corner, though he's hoping that endorsements from figures like election conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will help him establish himself as an alternative to the "establishment."The Downballot● It's our biggest news in the 21 years since we began covering elections: Daily Kos Elections is striking out on its own to launch a new, independent site with a name that will be very familiar to our listeners. We're calling it The Downballot, but have no fear—we'll still be bringing you this podcast weekly! In fact, our mission isn't changing at all. To learn all about our new venture, including why we're making this change and what to expect, dive right into this week's episode.Most importantly, we're asking folks to support our work shedding light on critical but often overlooked downballot elections by becoming paid subscribers. You can do so right here: https://www.the-downballot.com/subscribeOf course, the world of election news hasn't slowed down one bit! Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap a pair of major losses for the GOP at the ballot box in Wisconsin, where Republicans tried to kneecap the state's Democratic governor via constitutional amendment. They also zoom in on Nebraska's swingy 2nd District, where a Democratic hopeful will soon get a boost from the very top of the ticket. And finally, they provide an update on the abortion rights amendment in Arizona, where the arch-conservative state Supreme Court could strike it from the ballot.Never miss an episode! Subscribe to "The Downballot" wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes every Thursday morning!Governors● NJ-Gov: The influential Laborers’ International Union of North America announced this week that it would support Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill if she runs for governor of New Jersey next year. The New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein writes that LIUNA is one of the state's most prominent unions and has access to "one of the largest PACs in the building trades union sector."● UT-Gov: Sen. Mike Lee on Wednesday made it clear he was supporting Utah Gov. Spencer Cox even though Lee's fellow far-right Republican, state Rep. Phil Lyman, announced earlier in the week that he'd wage a write-in campaign. Lee did not directly mention Lyman, who lost the June GOP primary to Cox, even as he unsubtly tweeted, "The Primary is over ... We must defeat the Democrats by uniting behind our fellow Republicans."House● AZ-03: A Maricopa County judge has set an Aug. 20 hearing to announce the results of the automatic recount for the July 30 Democratic primary in Arizona's safely blue 3rd District. The results certified by the county show former Phoenix City Council member Yassamin Ansari with a 44.6-44.5 lead over former state Sen. Raquel Terán—a margin of 42 votes.● NH-02: Businessman Vikram Mansharamani this week publicized an endorsement from former Rep. Charlie Bass, who is the last Republican to represent New Hampshire's 2nd District, ahead of his Sept. 10 primary.Mansharamani ended June with more money available than any of the 13 Republicans running to succeed retiring Rep. Annie Kuster, the Democrat who unseated Bass in 2012. Joe Biden won this constituency by a solid 54-45 margin in 2020, though, and Republicans would need a lot to go right to flip it.Ballot Measures● AZ Ballot: The conservative majority on the Arizona Supreme Court sided with GOP legislators on Wednesday when it ruled they could describe a fetus as an "unborn human being" when summarizing the state's abortion rights amendment in the guide that will be mailed to all voters.Abortion rights opponents, though, are hoping the state's highest court will deliver them a much bigger victory later this month by keeping the amendment from even going before voters. Arizona Right to Life is arguing that a separate 200-word summary that is set to appear on the ballot is "inherently misleading and confusing." The group appealed after a lower court judge rejected this argument, and 12 News says that the courts have an Aug. 22 deadline to make final decisions on ballot measures.The state Supreme Court in 2018 kept an education tax measure from reaching the ballot determining it did not do enough to explain how it would function. The same body, however, allowed a similar measure to appear on the ballot two years later after concluding the summary "did not create a significant danger of confusion or unfairness." But while voters narrowly approved the plan, it was overturned in court after an unfavorable ruling from justices concerning state restrictions on education spending.● FL Ballot, FL-Sen: A pair of new Florida polls find that, while a majority of voters back the state's abortion rights amendment, it's a few points below the 60% it needs to pass. The Canadian firm Mainstreet Research's survey for Florida Atlantic University places Amendment 4 ahead 56-21, while Suffolk University's poll for USA TODAY and WSVN-TV has the "yes" side leading 58-35.Both polls also took a look at the battle to pass Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational legalization. Suffolk showed it passing 63-33, but Mainstreet placed "yes" ahead 56-29—still a few points short of the requisite 60%.Only Mainstreet's release included numbers for the likely matchup between GOP Sen. Rick Scott and former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, and it gives the Republican a small 47-43 advantage. The firm's last poll in June placed Scott ahead 45-43, which was also one of the best results for Mucarsel-Powell we've seen.National Democrats, however, have yet to announce any major ad reservations in an expensive state that Donald Trump is still favored to win. Mainstreet finds him beating Kamala Harris 49-46, while Suffolk gives him a comparable 47-42 advantage. Mucarsel-Powell still needs to win next Tuesday's Democratic primary before she can fully focus on Scott, but there's little indication that she'll have any trouble. Her most prominent intraparty foe, businessman Stanley Campbell, saw his campaign manager quit two weeks ago over what she described as a disorganized effort.Poll PileMT-Sen: American Pulse Research and Polling (R) for KULR-TV: Tim Sheehy (R): 51, Jon Tester (D-inc): 45PA-Sen: Quinnipiac University: Bob Casey (D-inc): 52, Dave McCormick (R): 44 (50-47 Harris in two-way, 48-45 Harris with third-party candidates (Jan.: 53-43 Casey)The Montana poll did not include the two minor party candidates on the ballot. Ad RoundupMI-Sen: DSCC - anti-Mike Rogers (R); One Nation - anti-Elissa Slotkin (D); Great Lakes Conservative Fund - anti-SlotkinPA-Sen: Dave McCormick (R) - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc)WI-Sen: Eric Hovde (R) (here and here); One Nation - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc) ($7.5 million buy)NH-Gov: Chuck Morse (R) - anti-Kelly Ayotte (R)CA-41: Americans 4 Security - anti-Will Rollins (D)MI-08: Paul Junge (R) - anti-Kristen McDonald Rivet (D); DCCC - anti-JungeNY-17: Mike Lawler (R-inc) and the NRCC (part of $5 million buy)PA-08: Rob Bresnahan (R) and the NRCCCampaign Action

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded ContentLeading Off● NE-Sen-A: Independent candidate Dan Osborn's hopes of pulling off an upset in Nebraska against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, who has no Democratic opponent, got a major boost in late July after a third-party contender dropped out and endorsed him to avoid playing spoiler. That minor party, known as Legal Marijuana NOW, could still name a replacement, but it has already missed a self-imposed deadline to do so.Polling sponsored by Osborn has shown him in a close battle against Fischer, but notably, his surveys did not include Kerry Eddy, the former Legal Marijuana NOW candidate.An April poll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling placed Fischer ahead by a small 37-33 margin in a two-way race. A subsequent poll jointly conducted last month by the GOP firm Red Wave Strategy Group and the Democratic pollster Impact Research, meanwhile, had the two candidates deadlocked at 42 apiece.By contrast, a Torchlight Strategies survey for Fischer’s campaign taken at the same time as Osborn's most recent poll named all three candidates. It reached a very different conclusion, giving Fisher a wide 50-24 lead, with Eddy taking a sizable 9%.Eddy now won't garner a single vote, but her departure was no surprise. In fact, it appears to have been the plan all along."I am running to support an independent candidate—Dan Osborn," Eddy explained on her website when she launched her campaign earlier this year. "I'll make sure that we all unite around whoever the strongest candidate is to defeat Deb Fischer in November."Her bid prompted backlash from the Legal Marijuana NOW Party, as the Lincoln Journal Star's Andrew Wegley reported, but she nevertheless defeated Kenneth Peterson 71-29 in a tiny primary that saw just over a thousand voters participate. (Eddy, an artist and Air National Guard veteran, had derided Peterson as a "weed bro"; Peterson described himself to Wegley as "probably the poorest senatorial candidate probably in the country.")Eddy, however, had some help in overcoming the hostility of the party she was nominally seeking to represent: A super PAC called Nebraska Railroaders For Public Safety spent about $35,000 on mailers and digital ads boosting her campaign. The PAC, whose biggest funder is Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman, has also supported Osborn, who has said he's unsure which party he'd caucus with in the Senate should he win.The Legal Marijuana NOW Party reacted angrily to Eddy's withdrawal, posting on Facebook late last month that Osborn had tried to "rig" their primary and claiming that it would "have a replacement candidate withing the week."But the party, which has until Sept. 3 to make such a move, has yet to act. It apparently held an online convention on Aug. 4 but failed to advance an alternative, and the Nebraska secretary of state's office tells Daily Kos Elections that the party has not filed any paperwork naming a new nominee.Even without a third-party rival on the ballot, Osborn faces difficult odds in his quest to unseat Fischer given Nebraska's strong conservative tilt. But independents in other red states and districts have had success in recent years in closing the gap against Republicans if not defeating them outright when Democrats have chosen not to field a candidate of their own—success that Osborn is hoping to replicate.And one powerful Democratic group is a believer. The Sixteen Thirty Fund, which is one of the best-funded Democratic organizations in the country, is financing a super PAC called Retire Career Politicians. (It's also contributed to the Nebraska Railroaders PAC.)According to AdImpact, Retire Career Politicians is spending at least $215,000 on an opening TV ad campaign that praises Osborn as an alternative to politicians who "couldn't be doing less" as "working families struggle to make ends meet." That statement is accompanied by a photo of President Joe Biden and Donald Trump to bolster the case that Osborn sits outside the two-party system.The narrator continues by praising the candidate's service in the Army and Navy and calling him a "lifelong Nebraskan and a leader of his labor union." The spot then plays audio of Osborn declaring, "Only 2% of all of Congress come from the working class. There's nobody like me in the United States Senate."Nebraska's other Senate seat is also on the ballot this year in a special election for the remaining two years of former Republican Sen. Ben Sasse's term. Sasse resigned at the end of the last Congress to become president of the University of Florida, a post he announced he was relinquishing last month because of his wife's health struggles. Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, whom Gov. Jim Pillen appointed to replace Sasse, does have a Democratic opponent, but his contest against Preston Love has attracted little attention.election recaps● HI State House: Former state Board of Education member Kim Coco Iwamoto denied renomination to state House Speaker Scott Saiki, who has spent close to eight years as one of Hawaii's most powerful politicians, 53-47 in Saturday's Democratic primary. Iwamoto, who is unopposed in the general election, is now set to become the first openly transgender member of the chamber. Iwamoto's victory over Saiki, who narrowly fended her off in both 2020 and 2022, came after she argued that the speaker failed to address the rising cost of living in a Honolulu district where condo insurance costs have spiked. The impact of her victory, though, is already being felt well outside the boundaries of the 25th District."[I]t will be somewhat of a shock to the system at the Legislature if the speaker doesn’t prevail," Democratic Gov. Josh Green, who supported Saiki, told Hawaii News Now on election night. This jolt is fine with Iwamoto, who said that evening of her opponent, "I wasn’t just, you know, campaigning against him. I was campaigning against the entire Democratic establishment in some ways."Governors● DE-Gov: A new poll by Concord Public Opinion Partners on behalf of Education Reform Now Advocacy shows New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer with a 30-23 edge over Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long in the Sept. 10 Democratic primary, while National Wildlife Federation leader Collin O'Mara takes 8%.Education Reform Now Advocacy is a nonprofit affiliated with Democrats for Education Reform, a PAC that supports charter schools. It is unclear whether the latter group has a rooting interest in this contest.This is the first poll this year to show Meyer leading, but it's also the first that was conducted after state officials released a damaging report late last month concluding that Hall-Long's campaign had violated campaign finance laws. A mid-July survey from Public Policy Polling for Hall-Long's supporters at the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association found her leading Meyer 31-19. Meanwhile, an early-July poll from Slingshot Strategies for Citizens for a New Delaware Way, which opposes Hall-Long, found the race tied, at 27-27.Mayors & County Leaders● Sacramento, CA Mayor: Retiring Mayor Darrell Steinberg declared Tuesday that he was backing Assemblyman Kevin McCarty in the November nonpartisan election to replace him as leader of California's dark blue capital city.The Sacramento Bee's Theresa Clift writes that Steinberg, who confirmed his "support" only after the paper learned he'd made a donation to McCarty back in March. Steinberg did not say he was endorsing the legislator, but as we've written before, this is a distinction without a difference.McCarty—a Democrat whose social media profile declares, "* NOT Kevin McCartHy, Seriously!"—faces physician Flojaune Cofer, who is the endorsed candidate of the local chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America. Cofer, who would be the first Black woman elected to lead Sacramento, led McCarty 29-22 in the March nonpartisan primary. Neither of the two candidates who finished just behind him, former state Sen. Richard Pan and City Councilman Steve Hansen, appear to have backed either McCarty or Cofer.Poll PileNC-Gov: Cygnal (R) for the Carolina Journal and the John Locke Foundation: Josh Stein (D): 43, Mark Robinson (R): 38, Mike Ross (L): 3, Wayne Turner (G): 1 (47-44 Trump with third-party candidates) (May: 39-39 gubernatorial tie)NC-AG: Cygnal (R): Dan Bishop (R): 42, Jeff Jackson (D): 38NC Supreme Court: Cygnal (R): Jefferson Griffin (R): 40, Allison Riggs (D-inc): 37San Francisco, CA Mayor: Sextant Strategies & Research (D) for the San Francisco Chronicle: London Breed (inc): 28, Mark Farrell: 20, Daniel Lurie: 17, Aaron Peskin: 12, Ahsha Safai: 5 (All candidates are Democrats.)Ad RoundupMT-Sen: Tim Sheehy (R) - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc)NM-Sen: Nella Domenici (R) and the NRSCWI-Sen: Restoration of America - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc)IA-03: Lanon Baccam (D)OH-09: Derek Merrin (R) and the NRCC - anti-Marcy Kaptur (D-inc)San Francisco, CA Mayor: Daniel LurieCampaign Action

Senate Democrats are feeling more confident about their chances of keeping the Senate majority with Vice President Harris leading the ticket, arguing her momentum could lift them despite a nightmare battleground map. The GOP has long been the favorite to take the Senate this fall because Democrats are defending more difficult-to-hold seats. Republicans need only [...]

In his first campaign rally since Vice President Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, Donald Trump rallied support for a crucial Senate seat in Montana.

The winning ticket to save America starts right here in “Trumptana.” Vote with me for President Trump and Tim Sheehy to Make America Great Again.

'Help to get across the finish line'

'Democrats are going to adopt a strategy of lying'

The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast Embedded ContentLeading Off● AK-AL: Politico's Ally Mutnick reports that Vote Alaska Before Party, a Democratic group funded by House Majority PAC, is spending close to $1 million in an attempt to boost an unheralded Republican perennial candidate named Gerald Heikes in the Aug. 20 top-four primary.Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola and two prominent GOP foes, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and businessman Nick Begich, are poised to claim three of the spots in the instant-runoff general election. Democrats, however, seem convinced they'd benefit if that final slot goes to Heikes instead of one of the other eight minor candidates.Because of the unusual dynamics in this race, VABP appears to have decided that its best course of action is to treat Heikes like he's already of equal stature to Dahlstrom and Begich. The group's TV ad warns that "all three could join extremists in Washington to ban abortion, ban it in all cases, no exceptions." A separate digital ad focused only on Heikes by labeling him "too conservative on abortion."Mutnick writes that Democrats may be intervening on Heikes' behalf because they think it will help ensure that Begich is the top GOP vote-getter. Begich has pledged to end his campaign if he takes fewer votes than Dahlstrom later this month, a prospect that would delight the many Republicans he alienated before and during his two failed 2022 campaigns for this seat.Donald Trump and House GOP leaders are doing what they can to end Begich's third effort by endorsing Dahlstrom, who says she'll keep campaigning in the general election no matter what. Heikes, for his part, tells the Anchorage Daily News that he'd also continue to run if he secures a spot in round two. The candidate declared that, after he learned that the ardently anti-abortion lieutenant governor believed in exceptions for rape and incest, "I decided I’m just going to stick this one out and see what happens."Mutnick also notes that Peltola could benefit if a Republican like Heikes takes the fourth-place spot that might have instead gone to one of the six independent or third-party candidates. While none of them are well known, it's possible that moderate voters may prefer one of these options to Peltola and be reluctant to rank her second on their instant-runoff ballots. Heikes' supporters who share his hardline views on abortion, by contrast, might be unwilling to support Dahlstrom if he's making trouble for her in the fall.Still, as Mutnick notes, a 12-person race like this is difficult to meddle in. It also remains to be seen if Democrats will use the remaining time to damage Dahlstrom with the base—a tactic they often employ in conventional primaries to convince Republicans to nominate a weaker candidate​​—or if they'll continue to only boost Heikes.The Downballot● Tim Walz may be on the national ticket, but he's the ultimate downballot guy, so we've got to talk all about him on this week's episode of "The Downballot." We recount Walz's extensive electoral career, starting with his upset win for Congress as a "Fighting Dem" during the 2006 wave that began a streak of impressive overperformances continuing through his two bids for governor. We also explain exactly how Walz would be replaced if he's elected VP—and how his replacement would be replaced, and how that person would be replaced. Nothing is too weedy for us!Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday's meaty primary night, which set the table for a host of competitive November elections and set some other candidates on a glide path to victory. The Davids discuss why the top of the ticket will likely determine the fate of Michigan's open Senate race; why candidate quality—and not outside money—was the most important factor in Rep. Cori Bush's defeat; and why Washington's top-two primary system should be banished from the face of the earth.Never miss an episode! Subscribe to "The Downballot" wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes every Thursday morning!Governors● NH-Gov: Retiring Gov. Chris Sununu on Wednesday endorsed former Sen. Kelly Ayotte ahead of the Sept. 10 Republican primary to succeed him. Ayotte was already the GOP frontrunner against former state Senate President Chuck Morse, a longtime Sununu ally who has struggled to raise money.House● FL Redistricting: Florida's Supreme Court has finally set oral arguments for Sept. 12 in the challenge to Republicans' congressional gerrymander, which plaintiffs argue violated the state constitution's ban on racial discrimination by dismantling the plurality-Black 5th District. The new map turned it from a safely Democratic seat into a heavily white district, renumbered the 4th, that easily flipped to the GOP in 2022. Thanks to delays by conservative-dominated appellate courts, Florida would not use a new map until at least 2026 even if plaintiffs prevail.● TN-05: Republican Rep. Andy Ogles has now confirmed that the FBI searched his phone last Friday over potential campaign finance violations, a statement he made hours after NewsChanel 5 Nashville's Phil Williams first reported the news. Federal officials have declined to comment, while the Washington Post relayed that Ogles' attorney claimed, "We are cooperating at this point and we will see where the investigation goes."Williams had previously uncovered how Ogles had fabricated much of his life story and filed false campaign finance reports in 2022 that claimed he had loaned his campaign $320,000. Ogles' earlier financial disclosure form did not even include a bank account or any other indication he could afford to make such a large loan, and he admitted the amount was a much smaller $20,000 in amended filings earlier this year.Separately, the nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center filed an ethics complaint in January that also accused Ogles of failing to report a credit line for $700,000 that he opened in September 2022. That was just one month after he won the competitive Republican primary for what was then a newly gerrymandered open seat, which Ogles went on to win by 56-42 that fall. Together, those two financial discrepancies add to $1 million.● WA-04: The Associated Press projects an all-Republican general election between former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler and Rep. Dan Newhouse, who is one of the two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 riot. With an estimated 70% tabulated, Sessler leads with 31% as Newhouse edges out a third Republican, 2022 Senate nominee Tiffany Smiley, 25-19. Trump endorsed Sessler in April but announced over the weekend that he was also backing Smiley in this central Washington seat. Trump won here 57-40 four years ago.● WA-05: The AP has called the two general election spots for Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner, who was the GOP’s 2012 U.S. Senate nominee, and former Spokane County Democratic Party Chair Carmela Conroy. With an estimated 67% reporting, Baumgartner leads with 28% as Conroy beats out Republican state Rep. Jacquelin Maycumber 20-12 for second. Baumgartner will be favored to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers in a Spokane area seat that Donald Trump won 54-44 in 2020.● WA-06: The AP also projects that a pair of state senators, Democrat Emily Randall and Republican Drew MacEwen, will face off in the general election to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Derek Kilmer in this reliably blue constituency. With an estimated 74% in, Randall is in first with 34% as MacEwen enjoys a 30-25 advantage over Kilmer's preferred successor, Democratic Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz. Joe Biden scored a 57-40 victory in this seat, which is based in the Olympic Peninsula and Tacoma, in 2020.● WI-08: The super PAC Speak Free or Die has now spent $1 million to promote former state Sen. Roger Roth or attack his intraparty rivals, state Sen. Andre Jacque and businessman Tony Wied, ahead of the Aug. 13 Republican primaries for the conservative 8th District. (That's primaries plural.) The only other outside spending here has been the nearly $100,000 that another pro-Roth group, Elect Principled Veterans Fund, has used to help the Air National Guard veteran.But Wied, who is the former owner of a dinosaur-themed chain of gas stations, is betting that he can offset all this with an ad where Donald Trump tells Roth to quit the race. Trump, in a rare direct-to-camera commercial for a downballot candidate, implores the audience to heed the words of "your favorite president" and vote for "a highly successful businessman and America first warrior who is running against RINO Roger Roth, who is no friend of MAGA."While Trump does not say what the former state senator has done to alienate him, the commercial displays an April Truth Social post where he dismisses Roth as "a 'clone' of Paul Ryan." (It's not clear who, if anyone, he's quoting there.) The ad continues with Trump declaring, "Roger should drop out of the race immediately because Tony's the guy as your next congressman." The spot does not mention Jacque.Secretaries of State● MO-SoS: Election conspiracy theorists scored a win in Tuesday's eight-person Republican primary for Missouri secretary of state when state Sen. Denny Hoskins, who is a founder of the state branch of the Freedom Caucus, defeated Green County Clerk Shane Schoeller 24-17.Hoskins celebrated his victory with a statement declaring, "[W]e have to ensure that none of the electoral fraud that took place in 2020 and stole the election from President Trump happens here." Schoeller, by contrast, declared during the campaign that it was "critically important that you work with everyone," including Democrats, when conducting elections.Hoskins, who is the favorite to defeat Democratic state Rep. Barbara Phifer in this conservative state, has called for requiring all ballots to be counted by hand. Election experts have found this practice is less accurate than the current system of electronic tabulations, while the Kansas City Star's Jonathan Shorman says that such a switch would overwhelm local officials in Kansas City and St. Louis. Hoskins also wants to ban absentee voting for most voters and instead designate Election Day as a holiday.Elections also aren't the only area where the nominee has spread conspiracy theories. Hoskins is one of three GOP state senators who is being sued for defamation after they shared social media posts that falsely suggested that a bystander was an "illegal immigrant" who was linked to February's fatal shooting at the Kansas City Chiefs' Super Bowl victory parade.Hoskins wasn't the only hardline Republican who was competing for the nomination to replace Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, who took a disappointing third place in the primary for governor. The field also included state House Speaker Dean Plocher, who is at the center of multiple scandals, and state Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman, who is one of the legislature's most ardent opponents of abortion rights: The two took fourth and fifth place, respectively. That was still better, though than the sixth-place finish for homophobic troll Valentina Gomez.Prosecutors & Sheriffs● Jackson County, MO Prosecutor: Kansas City director of public safety Melesa Johnson is poised to become the first Black person to serve as prosecutor for Jackson County, a populous and reliably blue community, following her victory in Tuesday's three-way Democratic primary. Johnson outpaced prosecutor John Gromowsky, a white candidate who drew unwelcome attention in June when he talked about "Black-on-Black crime," 48-26. The balance went to attorney Stephanie Burton.The trio was competing to replace retiring Democratic incumbent Jean Peters Baker, who was first appointed to this office in 2011. Johnson, who had the support of Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas, campaigned as a supporter of what she's called "transformative justice." She explained her approach to KSHB by saying, "I have no interest in being soft on crime, but I think we need to be smart on crime. Six out of seven people sentenced to incarceration will return to the communities they came from, so why not invest in their transformation?"Johnson also addressed her potential to make history in that same interview when she said, "It is baffling to me that in 2024, we are on the precipice of a potential first." She continued, "As it pertains to representation and electing diversity, and of course I am beyond qualified, so I am not leaning on my race as a metric to get elected, but I do feel we are at a time post-George Floyd, post-civil unrest, starting with Trayvon Martin, that we understand race does play a role in fighting crime and the criminal justice system."Poll PileWI-Sen: Marquette University Law School: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc): 51, Eric Hovde (R): 45, Phil Anderson (Disrupt the Corruption Party): 2, Thomas Leager (America First Party): 2 (50-49 Harris in two-way, 46-45 Harris with third-party candidates) (June: 52-47 Baldwin)Ad RoundupAZ-Sen: DSCC - anti-Kari Lake (R)FL-Sen: Rick Scott (R-inc)MD-Sen: Larry Hogan (R)MI-Sen: NRSC - anti-Elissa Slotkin (D); One Nation - anti-Slotkin (part of $9.4 million buy); DSCC - anti-Mike Rogers (R)MO-Sen: Lucas Kunce (D)MT-Sen: More Jobs, Less Government - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc)PA-Sen: Bob Casey (D-inc); DSCC - anti-Dave McCormick (R) (here and here); McCormick - anti-CaseyTX-Sen: Colin Allred (D)WI-Sen: DSCC - anti-Eric Hovde (R)AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc) and the NRCC (in English and Spanish)FL-09: Darren Soto (D-inc) (in Spanish)IA-03: Zach Nunn (R-inc)MI-08: Paul Junge (R); Junge - anti-Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)NV-02: Greg Kidd (I)WA-03: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-inc) - anti-Joe Kent (R)WI-03: Derrick Van Orden (R-inc)Campaign Action

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is locked in a tight race in Montana as former President Trump boasts a wide lead over Vice President Harris in the state, new polling shows. A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey puts Trump-backed Republican Tim Sheehy two points ahead of Tester, 48 percent to 46 percent. Another 5 percent [...]

With a kick in the teeth to Pennsylvania and its governor, Harris exiles pro-Israel Democrats.

Data: Adimpact; Chart: Axios Visuals Note: Totals include ad money spent and ad reservations already made through Election Day.Since the start of the year, there have been $723 million worth of campaign ad buys for just three Senate races: in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana, according to AdImpact data.Why it matters: A fierce battle for control of the Senate is fueling the expected record-breaking ad spending this election cycle. The investment so far points to the races both parties deem most critical for the majority.Zoom in: Democrats have long held a fundraising advantage over Republicans, which is helping them play defense in nine competitive Senate races.Ohio is the only Senate race in which Republicans have been spending more than Democrats on campaign ads and reservations — though this is largely due to it having one of the only highly competitive Senate GOP primaries this year. Republican Bernie Moreno won the Ohio primary and will face Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown in November.The showdowns between Sen. Bob Casey (D) and Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania and Sen. Jon Tester (D) and Tim Sheehy in Montana come in second and third for ad spending and booking for both parties, so far.The $70.5 million of spending in California was driven by heated Senate primary. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) is expected to have an easy general election in November.Totals include ad reservations made so far through Election Day, though those reservations are expected to keep coming.Zoom out: Republicans have zeroed in on ousting popular Democratic senators in Montana and Ohio — both states Trump handily won in 2020.Pennsylvania remains at the the heart of the 2024 cycle as a critical swing state for the presidential and holding a competitive Senate race as well as four competitive House races.What to watch: There will be even more ad buys announced as the year's primaries wrap up. The Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell-linked One Nation and NRSC on Wednesday both launched multimillion-dollar ad buys for the Michigan race, for example.

The New York Democrat says in an Associated Press interview that he feels “exhilarated and gratified” by the surge of enthusiasm with Vice President Kamala Harris atop the party's ticket.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is predicting that Democrats will keep control of the Senate in the November election

Endangered Species Act protection for grizzlies could end or be revised by January under a new FWS plan in response to demands by Montana, Idaho and Wyoming leaders.

Data: AdImpact; Note: Includes ads paid for as of July 2024; Chart: Axios VisualsTens of millions of dollars are fueling ads across platforms to push abortion rights measures that are expected to be on the ballot in Arizona, Nevada and Montana this year, according to AdImpact data.Why it matters: Those same states could determine the next president and control of the Senate. Democrats hope having abortion on the ballot will keep the focus on their most potent issue — and turn out much-needed voters.Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade two years ago, abortion rights have won out on the ballot in state after state.Having the option to vote to protect access to abortion in their state may help Democrats turn out important voting blocs like young people and women who are independents.Zoom in: The biggest ad spends to bolster these ballot measures have been in Arizona and Nevada — states Biden narrowly won in 2020 and where Republicans are hoping an Election Day landslide will help them flip Senate seats.Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom has spent more than $17 million booking ad space starting next month and running through the election, according to AdImpact.Ad spend around abortion ballot measures was third greatest in the red state of Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester (D) is fighting to hold his seat.DSCC spokesperson Tommy Garcia told Axios: "The fight for reproductive freedom will once again be at the forefront of the issues landscape in Senate battlegrounds, and Senate Republican candidates' well-documented opposition to women's right to make their own health care decisions is a deal breaker for voters."What to watch: There is also a major abortion ballot measure in Florida. There has been little money spent on ads so far — but that is expected to change in the next couple of weeks and in the run-up to November, a source close to the effort told Axios.The other side: Republicans aim to assure voters of their candidates' opposition to a national abortion ban and accuse Democrats of distracting from other issues. But there is not nearly as much ad spending to fight the ballot measures. The antiabortion Susan B. Anthony group has spent just $3,000 in Montana, and its affiliated Women Speak Out PAC has spent less than $9,000 in Arizona, according to AdImpact.This year antiabortion groups spent nearly $1.5 million on ads in Minnesota and more than $800k in Michigan amid fights against abortion rights efforts in those states — to no avail. What they're saying: "Democrats don't want to talk about Kamala Harris' role as border czar, her support for defunding the police, or her embrace of the failure that is Bidenomics, so they are going to run a single-issue campaign on abortion," NRSC spokesperson Mike Berg told Axios."Kari Lake is the only woman and mom in the race. She opposes a national abortion ban," a spokesperson for Arizona Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake told Axios.

Democrats running in some of the toughest congressional races in the country are becoming less shy about going after President Biden to boost their campaigns.Why it matters: Even as Democrats try for a fresh start with Vice President Harris at the top of the ticket, she is getting swept up into some of the criticism as well. A half-dozen House Democrats, all in swing districts, voted for a resolution last week condemning the administration's handling of the border that called out Harris specifically.One of those lawmakers, Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), went so far as to say he is "absolutely not" committed to voting for Harris in November.What they're saying: Josh Riley, the Democrat running against Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.), told Axios the "whole administration" — including Harris — "has failed on this. Top to bottom the Biden administration has been a disaster on the border."Riley made clear he would not vote for Trump but declined to commit to voting for Harris in November – though his campaign said in a July 22 fundraising email that he's "supporting Vice President Harris as the Democratic nominee.""I approach all of this based on policies, not personalities. And my view is that if there's a president, vice president, anybody ... if they want to do things to help upstate New York, I'm going to support that, and if not, I'm going to oppose it," he said.Driving the news: Riley's campaign is out with a new ad saying that "on the border, I've opposed the president."That echoes ads run by Trump-district Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) and Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas), who is running for Senate in GOP-leaning Texas.Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) has repeatedly stressed disagreements with Biden on the border, as well as environmental regulations and oil drilling.Between the lines: The Harris campaign pointed to numerous examples of vulnerable House and Senate Democrats campaigning with Harris and saying she has reignited Democratic voters' enthusiasm.The campaign sees winning up and down the ballot as its top priority and wants Democrats to use whatever maneuvers help them win, a source familiar with the campaign's thinking told Axios.Campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz, pointing to Republicans and former President Trump killing a bipartisan border deal earlier this year, said Harris is the "one candidate in this race who will fight for bipartisan solutions to strengthen border security."The other side: "These highly vulnerable House Democrats will vote for San Francisco liberal Kamala Harris on election day," National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Will Reinert told Axios. Harris "isn't just complicit in Joe Biden's failures these frauds pretend to dislike, but wants to take America in an even more dangerous direction," Reinert added. Molinaro said in a statement that Riley is "blatantly lying" in his ad, with his campaign saying their Democratic rival has "stood with Harris-Biden on open border policies 100%."Zoom in: Biden dropping out of the race has made it even easier for Democrats to turn the president into a down-ballot punching bag.Adam Frisch, who is running in a Republican-leaning House seat in Colorado, is running an ad touting his call for Biden to withdraw as evidence that he is not a party "yes man."Golden launched an ad after Biden dropped out saying the 81-year-old president is "unfit to serve a second term" and touting his vote against the Build Back Better Act and a Biden emissions standards rule.Zoom out: Distancing from a presidential administration, especially an unpopular one, is a time-honored strategy for congressional candidates of both parties.Congressional Democrats had begun distancing from Biden before he left the ticket, a dynamic that accelerated after his disastrous debate against former President Trump.Yes, but: Some incumbent Democrats have shied away from openly hitting Biden from for fear of not having a sufficiently anti-Biden record to back up their rhetoric.One swing-district lawmaker told Axios it is hard to deploy the strategy "unless we have a voting record to prove it."In lieu of that, the lawmaker said, "Most of us will lean in on the Senate border bill ('which I would have voted for if Mike Johnson hadn't scuttled it...')."Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.

The bill's sponsor, Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown, is facing a tough reelection race this November in an increasingly red state.

It is no secret; Kamala Harris has been the enabler-in-chief for Joe Biden. And now, Joe Biden has endorsed Harris to run for president.

There’s a lot on the line in 2024 and some issues hit closer to home for working Montanans and their families.

Congressional Democrats in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and beyond are seeing an outpouring of volunteers to help Vice President Kamala Harris.

Nearly a third of young Americans believed democracy to be no longer viable, a December 2023 YouGov poll found.

Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Jerry Moran, R-Kan., are seen in the Capitol on July 8.

Montana Sen. Jon Tester and Vermont Sen. Peter Welch deserve credit as the only two Democratic senators, along with a handful of Democratic representatives, who had the courage to speak publicly about what average folks have believed for some while.

Since Biden took office, more than 7 million migrants have entered our country illegally through our southern border.

'Endorsements for Harris have swelled'

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is the lone holdout among Senate Democrats to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris as the party's presidential nominee. Why it matters: Tester, one of the upper chamber's most vulnerable Democrats, has called for an open primary process, deviating from the bulk of Dems who have rallied behind Harris' candidacy. Tester is seeking re-election in November in a state former President Trump won by almost 17 percentage points four years ago. Catch up quick: Harris surpassed the number of Democratic delegates needed to receive the nomination on Monday, according to an unofficial Associated Press tally.The Democratic National Committee will host a "virtual role call" to officially select its nominee ahead of the party's convention in August. Between the lines: Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) — who will resign from the Senate on August 20 — also hasn't endorsed Harris.State of play: Tester was the second Senate Democrat to call on Biden to drop out of the race. Friction point: The GOP has capitalized on Tester's lack of outspoken support for Harris. "Jon Tester recruited Kamala Harris," the National Republican Senatorial Committee said on X. "Now he's afraid to say he publicly supports her?"Zoom out: Tester's November re-election in deep-red Montana is one of the November races that could determine which party controls the Senate.Go deeper: Tester's campaign against his own partyHarris endorsements: VP amasses support after Biden exits race

President Joe Biden walks toward Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on Feb. 20, 2024.

President Biden's decision to drop his reelection bid and Vice President Harris's emergence as the front-runner for the Democratic nomination has vulnerable Senate Democrats scrambling to fend off new GOP attacks on her record. Biden's biggest vulnerability was his age and doubts about his fitness for office, but the silver lining for Democrats was that [...]