Sheldon Whitehouse

The Congressional Budget Office estimates sky-high tariffs promised by President-elect Trump might improve the nation's fiscal outlook — but at the cost of higher inflation and slower economic growth than would otherwise be the case.Why it matters: The nonpartisan agency's findings are the highest-profile estimates yet of how such trade policy could slam consumers, businesses and the broader economy.The big picture: The CBO's estimates, released in a letter to lawmakers on Wednesday, came at the request of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D, N.Y.), budget committee chair Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D, R.I.), and Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden, who leads the finance committee. The lawmakers asked the CBO to look at a range of scenarios, including the combined economic and budget effects of a permanent 60% tariff on all Chinese imports, and a 10% tariff on all other goods imported into the country — the same trade policies promised by Trump. The estimates assume other nations slap retaliatory tariffs of the same magnitude on U.S. exports. By the numbers: The CBO estimates tariffs would spur price hikes on consumer goods, at least initially. Higher tariffs on Chinese goods and all other U.S. imports would increase the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, a gauge of inflation, by a full point by 2026 — a notable risk as the Federal Reserve is trying to keep inflation at bay.After 2026, however, the CBO says that the tariffs would not have any "additional significant effects on prices." The CBO also said that poorer households would experience the largest drop in purchasing power, given that cohort spends the largest chunk of their income on goods. As for economic growth, the CBO estimates the tariffs would lower GDP by as much as 0.6% in the next decade.Yes, but: The agency notes the hit to growth might be offset as consumers and businesses replace certain imported goods with those made domestically.Taking into account the economic effects, the CBO estimates tariffs would lower the budget deficit by up to $2.7 trillion over the next 10 years. The reduction of deficits might free up funds available for private investment, which provides a "substantial offset" to how much the agency anticipates tariffs would slow the economy. Without that effect, the CBO says the effect on GDP would be almost twice as large as their estimate.Still, the uncertainty associated with the policies might cause businesses to "delay or forgo new investments," while supply chain adjustments might prove costly. The bottom line: The CBO says its estimates are highly uncertain, with little historic precedent of what tariffs of this size might do to the economy.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) will unveil on Wednesday his list of Senate Democrats who get top committee positions, Axios has learned.Why it matters: These Senate Democrats will Schumer's top lieutenants to fight against Republican nominees and legislative priorities starting next year.The assignments:Sen. Amy Klobuchar, AgricultureSen. Patty Murray, AppropriationsSen. Jack Reed, Armed ServicesSen. Elizabeth Warren, BankingSen. Maria Cantwell, CommerceSen. Martin Heinrich, EnergySen. Sheldon Whitehouse, Environments and Public WorksSen. Ron Wyden, FinanceSen. Jeanne Shaheen, Foreign RelationsSen. Bernie Sanders, Health, Education, Labor and PensionsSen. Gary Peters, Homeland SecuritySen. Mark Warner, IntelligenceSen. Dick Durbin, JudiciarySen. Kirsten Gillibrand, AgingSen. Jeff Merkley, BudgetSen. Maggie Hassan, Joint EconomicSen. Alex Padilla, RulesSen. Ed Markey, Small BusinessSen. Richard Blumenthal, Veterans' AffairsSen. Chris Coons, EthicsSen. Brian Schatz, Indian Affairs

Sen. Elizabeth Warren says Americans seeking debt relief face an overly complicated, costly bankruptcy system.

Rep. Jamie Raskin sent a letter to Donald Trump’s transition team on Friday, seeking “clear assurance that the Trump-Vance Transition will require that all nominees receive a Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) background check before they are considered by the Senate.” The letter comes a little more than a week after the Trump transition team finally signed an agreement with the Department of Justice allowing the team to “submit names for background checks and security clearances.” Trump’s team has dragged its feet signing what are normally standard transition documents, including an ethics agreement Trump himself signed into law.“I request that the Trump-Vance Transition commit immediately to requiring all nominees to undergo FBI background checks before they are considered by the Senate,” Raskin reiterated, adding that the nominees must also ”submit to vetting before they are afforded any access to classified information.”In his current capacity as the top Democrat on the House Oversight and Accountability Committee, the Maryland Democrat notes that “reports indicate that some nominees may be refusing to undergo FBI background checks before the Trump Administration takes office,” referencing reports that Trump’s crew might look to a third-party private group for background checks as a way around the FBI.Raskin, who will be the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee in January, also asks about the influence of Boris Epshteyn and his role on the transition team, asking for any relevant documents pertaining to Trump top legal adviser, in the wake of reports that Epshteyn has taken money in exchange for promoting people for positions in the upcoming administration. “This is precisely the type of permissive environment in which individuals with undisclosed and unvetted security vulnerabilities can engage in nefarious conduct that could risk American security,” Raskin’s letter adds.Recently Sens. Richard Durbin of Illinois and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island have asked for the nominees who will appear in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee, to retain any correspondence they have had with Epshteyn.We're right in the thick of the holiday season, and we're all tired after a long election in which we gave 110%, but this is important: Daily Kos is falling short of our final goal of the year and time is running out. Can you chip in to help us close the books on 2024?

But passing such a bill could be harder than it seems.

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In the month since the presidential election, some things are starting to become clearer though many questions remain.What Can Be Expected on Day 1President-elect Donald Trump has made it clear that on Day 1 he plans to immediately reverse pauses on all liquified natural gas (LNG) export permits to accelerate oil and gas production and “lower energy prices.” Trump will push for more oil drilling on federal land and we also expect that the administration and Congress to move quickly on revamping DOE’s role in LNG export licenses under the Natural Gas Act. Trump also repeatedly promised on his campaign trail to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement on climate change once again, meaning the US would not have to abide by any “nationally determined contribution,” the non-binding 10-year national climate plan that the US is supposed to submit by a February 2025 deadline.Trump’s next likely targets include the recently finalized Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) methane fee on... Read the complete article here...©1994-2024 Mintz, Levin, Cohn, Ferris, Glovsky and Popeo, P.C. All Rights Reserved.

Republican lawmakers on Thursday signaled a willingness to target Social Security and other mandatory programs after meeting with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, the billionaire pair President-elect Donald Trump chose to lead a new commission tasked with slashing federal spending and regulations.Though the GOP's 2024 platform pledged to shield Social Security, the party has reverted to its long-held position in the weeks since Trump's election victory, with some lawmakers openly attacking the program while others suggest cuts more subtly by stressing the supposed need for "hard decisions" to shore up its finances. (Progressives argue Social Security's solvency can be guaranteed for decades to come by requiring the rich to contribute more to the program, a proposal Republicans oppose.)On Thursday, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) emerged from a meeting with Musk and Ramaswamy with the message that "nothing is sacrosanct.""They're going to put everything on the table," said Norman, one of the wealthiest members of Congress.After airing Norman's remarks, Fox Business reported that Musk and Ramaswamy told lawmakers that no federal program is safe from cuts, "and that includes Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid."NBC News congressional correspondent Julie Tsirkin said Thursday that after meeting with Musk, Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.)—who was recently elected Senate majority leader for the upcoming Congress—told her that "perhaps mandatory programs are areas that they're looking to make cuts in, like Social Security, for example.""But again, no specifics were laid out there," Tsirkin added.Thune has previously voiced support for raising Social Security's retirement age, a change that would cut benefits across the board.In the days leading up to their Capitol Hill visit, both Musk and Ramaswamy took swipes at Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid and made clear the programs would be in the crosshairs of their advisory commission, which is examining ways to slash federal spending without congressional approval.Earlier this week, Musk amplified a series of social media posts by Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), who once said he hopes to "get rid of" Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Defenders of Social Security saw Lee's thread, and Musk's apparent endorsement of it, as a declaration of war on the New Deal program.Days later, Ramaswamy said in an interview with CNBC that "there are hundreds of billions of dollars of savings to extract" from Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, claiming the programs are rife with waste, fraud, and abuse."People love to have lazy armchair discussions about, oh, are you going to make cuts to entitlements or not, when, in fact, the dirty little secret is that many of those entitlement dollars aren't even going to people who they were supposed to be going to in the first place," said Ramaswamy, advancing a narrative that observers warned could be used to justify additional bureaucratic barriers making it harder for eligible people to receive benefits.Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, said Thursday that the Trump-GOP agenda is "so predictable.""Tax cuts for billionaire donors; benefit cuts for people on Social Security—how the billionaires loot our country (what, not rich enough already, fellas?)," Whitehouse wrote on social media.In a column on Thursday, MSNBC's Ryan Teague Beckwith wrote that "Republicans somehow keep coming back to the idea of cutting Social Security" despite widespread opposition to such cuts among the American public."Would Trump try to cut Social Security? It's hard to say. Over the years, he has staked out every possible position on Social Security—sometimes within hours of each other," wrote Beckwith, noting that Trump previously called the program a "huge Ponzi scheme" and backed calls to raise the retirement age."So if Republicans—or Musk—decide to propose changes to Social Security benefits," Beckwith added, "it's possible that he might go along with it."

Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee have sent a letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray asking for “the complete evidentiary file” from the bureau's investigation into allegations of sex trafficking of minors against former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), whom President-elected Trump has tapped to become the next attorney general. The Democratic senators, led by Judiciary [...]

The Senate majority leader had not extended invitations to two candidates in close races.

The GOP pundit asked Democrats to allow the president-elect to fulfill his mandate.

Trump's election may prove the key moment in ending one of the most threatening periods of the Supreme Court's existence. With the Senate loss by Democrats things will subside.

Campaign finance reform advocates hope a potential win by Vice President Kamala Harris, seen here in Michigan last week with her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, will make changing those laws a priority.

Senate Judiciary Chair Richard J. Durbin says Congress will have to wield its appropriations, oversight and legislative power if faced with a corrupt presidency.

But the Fed faces a big decision about how much to cut in its quest to achieve a “soft landing” after years of inflation.

Calling Dick Durbin: The Climate Judiciary Project is trying to influence judges

Democrats could pass major parts of Kamala Harris' agenda with narrow majorities. But Republicans are telegraphing that her new plans would be dead on arrival if their party is in charge.

Already largely ignored, the 50-year-old law meant to guide the government's budget process faces new risks from Donald Trump.

Sen. JD Vance appears on stage for a podium check at the Fiserv Forum before the start of the Tuesday session of the Republican National Convention.