08/12/2024 --dailykos
We've entered the final month of the downballot primary season, but there's still more action on Tuesday as voters in four more states choose their nominees for congressional and state offices. Most of the action will be in Minnesota and Wisconsin, which feature primary contests both in key November battlegrounds and contests where winning the primary is tantamount to election.Connecticut and Vermont are also on tap, but there's less drama in both New England states. No member of Connecticut's all-Democratic House delegation faces any primary opposition whatsoever, and the only one who is vulnerable in November, Rep. Jahana Hayes, already knows she'll be facing a rematch against her 2022 GOP foe, former state Sen. George Logan. There is even less to watch in Vermont, where all the state's prominent officeholders are set to cruise to another term.Below, you'll find our guide to all of the top races to watch in Minnesota and Wisconsin. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.To help you follow along, you can find interactive congressional maps from Dave's Redistricting App for Connecticut, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. (Vermont has had just one House seat elected statewide for nearly a century.) You can find Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results for each congressional district here, as well as our geographic descriptions for each seat. You’ll also want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in the remaining states.We'll be liveblogging all of these races at Daily Kos Elections on Tuesday night, starting when polls close in the two Midwestern states at 9 PM ET/8 PM local time. Join us for our complete coverage!• MN-Sen (R) (52-45 Biden): Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar was poised to win a fourth term even before delegates to the state GOP's May convention stunned everyone by giving the party endorsement to former NBA player Royce White, a far-right conspiracy theorist with a long record of offensive and profane statements, over banker Joe Fraser. Fraser, though, decided to continue on to the primary even though many conservative activists and voters take the convention process seriously and look down on candidates who don't, in local parlance, "abide" by the endorsement.Polls show both White and Fraser performing poorly against Klobuchar, but the outcome of the primary could still matter. White, whose antics continue to draw attention, could be an unwelcome distraction for fellow Minnesota Republicans in more winnable races in a way that Fraser wouldn't be. • MN-02 (R) (53-45 Biden): Former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab, who is the favorite of national Republicans, seemed to have the nomination wrapped up after his sole intraparty opponent, attorney Tayler Rahm, announced last month that he was suspending his campaign against Democratic Rep. Angie Craig. Rahm, though, remains listed on the ballot, and he's continuing to send out mailers to primary voters in this suburban Twin Cities seat. It would still be a big surprise if Teirab, who has Donald Trump's endorsement, had trouble defeating Rahm, who still says he's no longer running. If Rahm, whose support from party activists helped him win the party convention this spring, did pull off an upset, though, he'd still be able to claim the nomination to take on Craig. • MN-05 (D) (81-17 Biden): Rep. Ilhan Omar fended off a 2022 primary challenge from former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels by a shockingly tight 50-48 margin, but their rematch isn't looking like it will be so close.While Omar didn't run any TV ads two years ago, she's learned from that mistake and is now massively outspending Samuels on the airwaves. There has also been little outside spending to aid the challenger this time.Samuels, though, is still hoping to score an upset by arguing that Omar, who is one of the most prominent left-wing members of Congress, has not done enough to help her constituents in the Minneapolis area. A late July internal poll for Omar, however, showed her easily beating Samuels 60-33, and her opponent has not responded with contradictory numbers. Two little-known Democrats are also on the ballot.• MN-07 (R) (66-32 Trump): Rep. Michelle Fischbach faces a primary challenge from the right in the form of businessman Steve Boyd, who unexpectedly prevented her from securing the necessary 60% support she needed to win the party endorsement in April. Boyd, though, has little money to make his case that the congresswoman is too "legislation-driven" to the wider electorate in this sprawling seat in western Minnesota. Fischbach, who has Trump's endorsement, released a poll from late June that showed her easily beating Boyd 64-14.• WI-03 (D): (51-47 Trump): Businesswoman Rebecca Cooke and state Rep. Katrina Shankland are competing for the Democratic nomination to face Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a freshman who made national news last summer when he reportedly screamed at teenage Senate pages. A third Democrat, Eric Wilson, is also on the ballot in this southwestern Wisconsin seat, but he's generated little attention.Cooke, who lost the 2022 primary 39-31 against a different opponent, is positioning herself as a political "outsider." Shankland has pushed back with ads arguing that Cooke's inexperience would not be an asset in Congress. Cooke has outraised her opponent, and she's also benefited from over $350,000 in outside spending from a pair of groups dedicated to electing moderate Democrats. (Cooke herself has acknowledged that, while she and Shankland have similar political views, the state representative "might lean a little bit more left" of her.) These ads, however, declare that Shankland betrayed Democrats by voting with the GOP on a bill to bar the governor from expanding Medicaid without legislative approval, a charge that state Democratic leaders argue is unfair.Shankland, for her part, has received around $200,000 in support from a super PAC affiliated with David Hogg, a high-profile gun safety activist. • WI-08 (R) (57-41 Trump): The GOP has two primaries to replace Mike Gallagher, who resigned in April from this conservative seat in northeastern Wisconsin. That's because Gallagher, to the frustration of his fellow Republicans, departed just weeks after it was too late for the special election for the remainder of his term to be held before the fall general election.The same trio of Republicans are facing off in both the special election primary and for the nomination for a full term in the next Congress: Trump-endorsed businessman Tony Wied, former state Sen. Roger Roth, and state Sen. Andre Jacque. The identical roster means that it's unlikely, though not impossible, that different candidates will win each primary. OB-GYN Kristin Lyerly has the Democratic side to herself in both nomination contests.Wied, who is the former owner of a dinosaur-themed chain of gas stations, is airing ads touting himself as Trump's chosen candidate. One of these spots features Trump himself demanding that Roth, whom he denounces as "no friend of MAGA," drop out of the race. But Roth, who lost a 2010 primary to represent a previous version of this constituency, isn't giving up on his dream to hold the seat that his uncle once served. Roth has benefited from $2 million in outside spending, while his rivals have received no such aid. Jacque, finally, is the only current elected official in the race, but he's struggled to bring in money to compete against his better-known rivals. The state senator has also faced unwelcome questions about whether he circumvented federal campaign finance rules prohibiting him from transferring money from his legislative committee into his new effort, allegations he's denied.All three candidates have largely adopted similar policy proposals, with one notable exception. Roth alone has said he'd have supported funding Ukraine's defense against Russia's invasion, a plan Jacque and Wied have made clear they'd have voted against.• WI Ballot (49.4-48.8 Biden): The Republican-dominated state legislature has written and placed two measures on Tuesday's ballot that would amend the state constitution to strip Democratic Gov. Tony Evers of key powers. Question 1 would bar legislators from delegating authority over spending to the executive branch, a critical tool that gives officials leeway to address emergencies and other unforeseen issues. Question 2, likewise, would prohibit the governor from dispensing federal funds without the legislature's explicit permission.Wisconsin Democrats and their allies have spent millions to urge voters to reject both amendments, with one ad warning that they're "designed to trick voters into eliminating checks and balances in our government." But while conservatives don't appear to have come anywhere close to matching their rivals in spending, they're hoping that the wording of the amendments, which make them sound like they're aimed at protecting checks and balances rather than eroding them, will help them prevail in what will likely be a low-turnout election.
